{"schema":"draftadynasty.public-data/v1","readOnly":true,"boundary":"Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.","id":"survivor-matchups","title":"Survivor matchup methodology","status":"Definitions","description":"Matchup formulas, feature tiers and evaluation requirements. Definitions do not imply that every input is available.","data":{"schemaVersion":"survivor-matchup-feature-registry/v1","updatedAt":"2026-08-22","modelPrinciple":"Market probability is the baseline. Football matchup variables may create only bounded, source-attributed residual adjustments or confidence changes.","formula":"logit(p_adjusted) = logit(p_market) + shrinkage * bounded_matchup_residual","tiers":[{"tier":1,"label":"hard constraints and market truth","features":["contest rules and lock semantics","entry-specific used-team eligibility","current two-sided no-vig market probability","observation time and freshness","source count and market dispersion"],"use":"Required. Missing critical values block a current recommendation."},{"tier":2,"label":"season assignment and contest equity","features":["eight-week rolling assignment value","team replacement cost","weekly slate scarcity","alternate-path switching cost","Week 18 six-team reserve health","team exposure and shared-game wipeout contribution","ownership with source class","field size and contest phase","opponent remaining-team scarcity"],"use":"Determines when to spend or save a team and how to allocate multiple entries."},{"tier":3,"label":"predictive football residuals","features":["starting quarterback status and backup delta","offensive pass EPA versus defensive pass EPA","early-down EPA and success rate mismatch","offensive-line continuity, especially LT and C","pressure rate versus pressure allowed","pressure without blitz versus pass protection","sack avoidance versus defensive sack conversion","explosive-pass rate differential","defensive EPA and success rate by pass and rush","injury-market gap after controlling for line movement","play-caller or scheme change with preseason shrinkage"],"use":"May move confidence or make a small bounded probability adjustment after avoiding double counting with the market."},{"tier":4,"label":"conditional context","features":["run-game mismatch when game script supports it","game total and pace as variance indicators","special teams and kicker reliability in close spreads","rest differential","travel distance and time-zone direction","weather, wind, precipitation, temperature, air quality near lock","late-season motivation and starter-rest regime"],"use":"Activated only when source quality and effect conditions are met. Usually confidence modifiers, not primary drivers."},{"tier":5,"label":"shrink or reject","features":["raw yards","win-loss streaks","head-to-head history","rivalry or revenge narratives","preseason final scores","blanket home-road rules","raw turnover margin and fumble recovery rate","red-zone and third-down rate without regression","analyst power rank used directly as a probability"],"use":"Not allowed to override calibrated market probability without demonstrated out-of-sample incremental value."}],"evaluationRequirements":["freeze every feature before contest lock","compare market-only and adjusted calibration","report Brier score and log loss","test incremental value with ablations","retain failed models and negative results","cap adjustments when market and model disagree","do not promote a feature from in-sample fit"]},"observedAt":"2026-08-22","sha256":"6a2365a9345a310698a23c2a8b6bde3934ae75e71fa06dcc719f24946f3c9c32","dataPointCount":67,"fields":[{"path":"$[\"schemaVersion\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"updatedAt\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"modelPrinciple\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"formula\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"tiers\"][][\"tier\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"tiers\"][][\"label\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"tiers\"][][\"features\"][]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"tiers\"][][\"use\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"evaluationRequirements\"][]","types":["string"]}],"freshness":{"mode":"frozen_snapshot","status":"not_live","note":"Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs."},"links":{"human":"https://draftadynasty.com/data/survivor-matchups","json":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-matchups","csv":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-matchups?format=csv","view":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-matchups/view"},"dictionary":{"notation":"JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change.","missing":"null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value.","units":"Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.","hash":"sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings."}}