{"schema":"draftadynasty.public-data/v1","readOnly":true,"boundary":"Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.","id":"survivor-opportunities","title":"Survivor season scenarios","status":"Experimental","description":"Week-by-week opportunity map, team inventory, portfolio scenarios and end-of-season reserves. Read assumptions and limitations before using a scenario.","data":{"schemaVersion":"survivor-2026-opportunity-map/v1","generatedAt":"2026-08-22","posture":{"weeks1to6":"look-ahead market spreads; still not exact Smartypants lock-time prices","weeks7to17":"market-strength projected spread equivalents; not executable odds","week18":"structural schedule projection only; motivation and starter rest will dominate","projectionUncertainty":{"weeks7to10":"plus-or-minus 2.5 points","weeks11to14":"plus-or-minus 3.5 points","weeks15to17":"plus-or-minus 4.5 points","week18":"no numerical confidence claim"}},"weeks":[{"week":1,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAC vs ARI","primary_spread":10.5,"secondary":"JAX vs CLE","secondary_spread":7.5,"planning_note":"LAC maximizes the current one-entry path; JAX has the lowest future opportunity cost; DET is the distinct-outcome hedge."},{"week":2,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SF vs MIA","primary_spread":10.5,"secondary":"SEA vs ARI","secondary_spread":10,"planning_note":"Multiple substitutes make saving LAC exclusively for Week 2 less valuable than it first appears."},{"week":3,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SF vs ARI","primary_spread":11.5,"secondary":"DET vs NYJ","secondary_spread":9.5,"planning_note":"Strong DET preservation window; SF also carries high replacement value."},{"week":4,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BAL vs TEN","primary_spread":8.5,"secondary":"CHI vs NYJ","secondary_spread":8.5,"planning_note":"This is a good week to spend a timing asset such as CHI or MIN instead of an elite multi-use team."},{"week":5,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"medium","primary":"NE vs LV","primary_spread":8.5,"secondary":"DET at ARI","secondary_spread":8.5,"planning_note":"Only two clear seven-point-class favorites; preserve at least one credible option per entry."},{"week":6,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAR vs ARI","primary_spread":13.5,"secondary":"NE vs NYJ","secondary_spread":9.5,"planning_note":"An unusually deep slate; avoid burning a scarce Week 12 or Week 17 asset here."},{"week":7,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"DEN at ARI","primary_spread":7.6,"secondary":"LAR at LV","secondary_spread":7.4,"planning_note":"Projection uncertainty ±2.5 points; retain alternate paths."},{"week":8,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"DAL vs ARI","primary_spread":9.3,"secondary":"NE at MIA","secondary_spread":7.6,"planning_note":"DAL is a classic timing asset: a strong apex without many other premium uses."},{"week":9,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SEA vs ARI","primary_spread":12.9,"secondary":"DET at MIA","secondary_spread":9,"planning_note":"One of the deepest projected weeks; flexible premium teams can be spent selectively."},{"week":10,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAR at ARI","primary_spread":9.9,"secondary":"BUF at NYJ","secondary_spread":7.5,"planning_note":"IND is another timing asset that can preserve BUF/LAR if its probability holds."},{"week":11,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BUF vs MIA","primary_spread":12.6,"secondary":"KC vs ARI","secondary_spread":10.7,"planning_note":"This is why BUF, KC, and LAC have high replacement value, but the slate has several substitutes."},{"week":12,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"bottleneck","primary":"JAX vs TEN","primary_spread":6.8,"secondary":"CIN vs NO","secondary_spread":4.5,"planning_note":"No projected seven-point favorite. Preserve JAX on entries that do not use it in Week 1, or retain another credible route."},{"week":13,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"DEN vs MIA","primary_spread":10.8,"secondary":"PHI at ARI","secondary_spread":8,"planning_note":"DEN and PHI are the clearest projected anchors; uncertainty ±3.5 points."},{"week":14,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"DET vs TEN","primary_spread":8.8,"secondary":"SEA vs NYG","secondary_spread":7.7,"planning_note":"Another high-value DET window; preserve DET on entries where Week 1 alternatives exist."},{"week":15,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"GB vs MIA","primary_spread":11.1,"secondary":"LAR vs DAL","secondary_spread":5.5,"planning_note":"GB is a valuable Week 15 timing asset; uncertainty ±4.5 points."},{"week":16,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BAL vs CLE","primary_spread":9.6,"secondary":"LAC at MIA","secondary_spread":7.8,"planning_note":"BAL and LAC retain late-season value; NO can become a timing alternative if its team quality improves."},{"week":17,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"bottleneck","primary":"BUF at MIA","primary_spread":9.4,"secondary":"SEA at CAR","secondary_spread":5.1,"planning_note":"Only one projected seven-point-class favorite. BUF is a scarce-week asset unless another route emerges."},{"week":18,"source_class":"structural_terminal","scarcity":"six-team-reserve","primary":"NE vs MIA","primary_spread":10.8,"secondary":"BUF vs NYJ","secondary_spread":10.7,"planning_note":"Structural projection only. Preserve a six-team package; starter rest and playoff motivation will dominate in January."}],"teamInventory":[{"team":"DET","spots_ge_7":6,"spots_ge_5":8,"best_windows":["W3 NYJ","W9 MIA","W14 TEN","W5 ARI","W16 NYG","W1 NO"],"inventory_class":"flexible_premium","week1_replacement_cost":"high"},{"team":"LAC","spots_ge_7":4,"spots_ge_5":5,"best_windows":["W1 ARI","W11 NYJ","W2 LV","W16 MIA","W14 LV"],"inventory_class":"flexible_premium","week1_replacement_cost":"medium"},{"team":"BUF","spots_ge_7":3,"spots_ge_5":4,"best_windows":["W11 MIA","W17 MIA","W10 NYJ","W6 LV"],"inventory_class":"bottleneck_premium","week1_replacement_cost":"not_applicable"},{"team":"GB","spots_ge_7":2,"spots_ge_5":4,"best_windows":["W15 MIA","W3 ATL","W8 CAR","W2 NYJ"],"inventory_class":"timing_asset","week1_replacement_cost":"not_applicable"},{"team":"JAX","spots_ge_7":1,"spots_ge_5":2,"best_windows":["W1 CLE","W12 TEN","W17 WAS"],"inventory_class":"limited_use_timing_asset","week1_replacement_cost":"low_to_medium"},{"team":"DAL","spots_ge_7":1,"spots_ge_5":2,"best_windows":["W8 ARI","W11 TEN"],"inventory_class":"timing_asset","week1_replacement_cost":"not_applicable"},{"team":"CHI","spots_ge_7":1,"spots_ge_5":2,"best_windows":["W4 NYJ","W14 MIA"],"inventory_class":"timing_asset","week1_replacement_cost":"not_applicable"},{"team":"IND","spots_ge_7":1,"spots_ge_5":1,"best_windows":["W10 MIA"],"inventory_class":"timing_asset","week1_replacement_cost":"not_applicable"}],"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic":{"horizonWeeks":8,"probabilityPosture":"Week 1 no-vig market; Weeks 2-6 look-ahead spreads; Weeks 7-8 projected equivalents","paths":[{"week1_team":"LAC","eight_week_path_value_product":0.173909,"relative_to_best":1,"diagnostic_path":"LAC / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"JAX","eight_week_path_value_product":0.163673,"relative_to_best":0.941,"diagnostic_path":"JAX / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"DET","eight_week_path_value_product":0.158778,"relative_to_best":0.913,"diagnostic_path":"DET / SEA / SF / BAL / NE / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"PHI","eight_week_path_value_product":0.142876,"relative_to_best":0.822,"diagnostic_path":"PHI / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"}],"interpretation":"Saving LAC for Week 2 did not improve the best eight-week path because substitute favorites were abundant. This is a planning diagnostic, not an acceptance-grade backtest."},"week1Portfolio":{"allocation":{"A":"LAC","B":"JAX","C":"DET"},"independenceScenarioOnly":{"expectedSurvivors":2.354659,"atLeastOneSurvives":0.990345186937,"completeWipeout":0.009654813063000004,"allThreeSurvive":0.482484222297,"atLeastTwoSurvives":0.8818295907660001}},"week18StructuralReserve":["NE","BUF","KC","SF","HOU","CIN"],"limitations":["Power-adjusted projections are derived from current look-ahead market strength and schedule, not future executable odds.","Current-season EPA does not exist before Week 1; 2025 EPA and line-play metrics are shrunk priors only.","Smartypants-specific ownership remains unavailable before reveal.","Historical injury and news snapshots are incomplete for acceptance-grade retrospective evaluation.","The 2026 prospective pre-lock ledger is the first true out-of-sample test."]},"observedAt":"2026-08-22","sha256":"35e7146482fc2894c970a58cdcf28d19091254b2caa9184e48210ce3d296e96e","dataPointCount":258,"fields":[{"path":"$[\"schemaVersion\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"generatedAt\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"weeks1to6\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"weeks7to17\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"week18\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"projectionUncertainty\"][\"weeks7to10\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"projectionUncertainty\"][\"weeks11to14\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"projectionUncertainty\"][\"weeks15to17\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"posture\"][\"projectionUncertainty\"][\"week18\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"week\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"source_class\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"scarcity\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"primary\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"primary_spread\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"secondary\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"secondary_spread\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"weeks\"][][\"planning_note\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"team\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"spots_ge_7\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"spots_ge_5\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"best_windows\"][]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"inventory_class\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"teamInventory\"][][\"week1_replacement_cost\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"horizonWeeks\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"probabilityPosture\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"paths\"][][\"week1_team\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"paths\"][][\"eight_week_path_value_product\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"paths\"][][\"relative_to_best\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"paths\"][][\"diagnostic_path\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic\"][\"interpretation\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"allocation\"][\"A\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"allocation\"][\"B\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"allocation\"][\"C\"]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"independenceScenarioOnly\"][\"expectedSurvivors\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"independenceScenarioOnly\"][\"atLeastOneSurvives\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"independenceScenarioOnly\"][\"completeWipeout\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"independenceScenarioOnly\"][\"allThreeSurvive\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week1Portfolio\"][\"independenceScenarioOnly\"][\"atLeastTwoSurvives\"]","types":["number"]},{"path":"$[\"week18StructuralReserve\"][]","types":["string"]},{"path":"$[\"limitations\"][]","types":["string"]}],"freshness":{"mode":"frozen_snapshot","status":"not_live","note":"Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs."},"links":{"human":"https://draftadynasty.com/data/survivor-opportunities","json":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-opportunities","csv":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-opportunities?format=csv","view":"https://draftadynasty.com/api/data/survivor-opportunities/view"},"dictionary":{"notation":"JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change.","missing":"null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value.","units":"Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.","hash":"sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings."}}