{"schema":"draftadynasty.public-data-view/v1","readOnly":true,"id":"survivor-opportunities","title":"Survivor season scenarios","status":"Experimental","observedAt":"2026-08-22","snapshotId":"35e7146482fc2894c970a58cdcf28d19091254b2caa9184e48210ce3d296e96e","freshness":{"mode":"frozen_snapshot","status":"not_live","note":"Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs."},"boundary":"Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.","dictionary":{"notation":"JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change.","missing":"null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value.","units":"Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.","hash":"sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings."},"sourceContext":{"$":{"schemaVersion":"survivor-2026-opportunity-map/v1","generatedAt":"2026-08-22","posture":{"weeks1to6":"look-ahead market spreads; still not exact Smartypants lock-time prices","weeks7to17":"market-strength projected spread equivalents; not executable odds","week18":"structural schedule projection only; motivation and starter rest will dominate","projectionUncertainty":{"weeks7to10":"plus-or-minus 2.5 points","weeks11to14":"plus-or-minus 3.5 points","weeks15to17":"plus-or-minus 4.5 points","week18":"no numerical confidence claim"}},"teamInventory":{"collectionLength":8,"availableInFullDataset":true},"week1RollingHorizonDiagnostic":{"horizonWeeks":8,"probabilityPosture":"Week 1 no-vig market; Weeks 2-6 look-ahead spreads; Weeks 7-8 projected equivalents","paths":[{"week1_team":"LAC","eight_week_path_value_product":0.173909,"relative_to_best":1,"diagnostic_path":"LAC / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"JAX","eight_week_path_value_product":0.163673,"relative_to_best":0.941,"diagnostic_path":"JAX / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"DET","eight_week_path_value_product":0.158778,"relative_to_best":0.913,"diagnostic_path":"DET / SEA / SF / BAL / NE / LAR / DEN / DAL"},{"week1_team":"PHI","eight_week_path_value_product":0.142876,"relative_to_best":0.822,"diagnostic_path":"PHI / SEA / SF / BAL / DET / LAR / DEN / DAL"}],"interpretation":"Saving LAC for Week 2 did not improve the best eight-week path because substitute favorites were abundant. This is a planning diagnostic, not an acceptance-grade backtest."},"week1Portfolio":{"allocation":{"A":"LAC","B":"JAX","C":"DET"},"independenceScenarioOnly":{"expectedSurvivors":2.354659,"atLeastOneSurvives":0.990345186937,"completeWipeout":0.009654813063000004,"allThreeSurvive":0.482484222297,"atLeastTwoSurvives":0.8818295907660001}},"week18StructuralReserve":{"collectionLength":6,"availableInFullDataset":true},"limitations":{"collectionLength":5,"availableInFullDataset":true}}},"query":{"view":"records","collection":"weeks","q":"","order":"source","page":1,"limit":20,"snapshot":"35e7146482fc2894c970a58cdcf28d19091254b2caa9184e48210ce3d296e96e"},"total":18,"offset":0,"returned":18,"pages":1,"records":[{"sourceIndex":0,"record":{"week":1,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAC vs ARI","primary_spread":10.5,"secondary":"JAX vs CLE","secondary_spread":7.5,"planning_note":"LAC maximizes the current one-entry path; JAX has the lowest future opportunity cost; DET is the distinct-outcome hedge."}},{"sourceIndex":1,"record":{"week":2,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SF vs MIA","primary_spread":10.5,"secondary":"SEA vs ARI","secondary_spread":10,"planning_note":"Multiple substitutes make saving LAC exclusively for Week 2 less valuable than it first appears."}},{"sourceIndex":2,"record":{"week":3,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SF vs ARI","primary_spread":11.5,"secondary":"DET vs NYJ","secondary_spread":9.5,"planning_note":"Strong DET preservation window; SF also carries high replacement value."}},{"sourceIndex":3,"record":{"week":4,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BAL vs TEN","primary_spread":8.5,"secondary":"CHI vs NYJ","secondary_spread":8.5,"planning_note":"This is a good week to spend a timing asset such as CHI or MIN instead of an elite multi-use team."}},{"sourceIndex":4,"record":{"week":5,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"medium","primary":"NE vs LV","primary_spread":8.5,"secondary":"DET at ARI","secondary_spread":8.5,"planning_note":"Only two clear seven-point-class favorites; preserve at least one credible option per entry."}},{"sourceIndex":5,"record":{"week":6,"source_class":"lookahead_market","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAR vs ARI","primary_spread":13.5,"secondary":"NE vs NYJ","secondary_spread":9.5,"planning_note":"An unusually deep slate; avoid burning a scarce Week 12 or Week 17 asset here."}},{"sourceIndex":6,"record":{"week":7,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"DEN at ARI","primary_spread":7.6,"secondary":"LAR at LV","secondary_spread":7.4,"planning_note":"Projection uncertainty ±2.5 points; retain alternate paths."}},{"sourceIndex":7,"record":{"week":8,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"DAL vs ARI","primary_spread":9.3,"secondary":"NE at MIA","secondary_spread":7.6,"planning_note":"DAL is a classic timing asset: a strong apex without many other premium uses."}},{"sourceIndex":8,"record":{"week":9,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"SEA vs ARI","primary_spread":12.9,"secondary":"DET at MIA","secondary_spread":9,"planning_note":"One of the deepest projected weeks; flexible premium teams can be spent selectively."}},{"sourceIndex":9,"record":{"week":10,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"LAR at ARI","primary_spread":9.9,"secondary":"BUF at NYJ","secondary_spread":7.5,"planning_note":"IND is another timing asset that can preserve BUF/LAR if its probability holds."}},{"sourceIndex":10,"record":{"week":11,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BUF vs MIA","primary_spread":12.6,"secondary":"KC vs ARI","secondary_spread":10.7,"planning_note":"This is why BUF, KC, and LAC have high replacement value, but the slate has several substitutes."}},{"sourceIndex":11,"record":{"week":12,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"bottleneck","primary":"JAX vs TEN","primary_spread":6.8,"secondary":"CIN vs NO","secondary_spread":4.5,"planning_note":"No projected seven-point favorite. Preserve JAX on entries that do not use it in Week 1, or retain another credible route."}},{"sourceIndex":12,"record":{"week":13,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"DEN vs MIA","primary_spread":10.8,"secondary":"PHI at ARI","secondary_spread":8,"planning_note":"DEN and PHI are the clearest projected anchors; uncertainty ±3.5 points."}},{"sourceIndex":13,"record":{"week":14,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"DET vs TEN","primary_spread":8.8,"secondary":"SEA vs NYG","secondary_spread":7.7,"planning_note":"Another high-value DET window; preserve DET on entries where Week 1 alternatives exist."}},{"sourceIndex":14,"record":{"week":15,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"medium","primary":"GB vs MIA","primary_spread":11.1,"secondary":"LAR vs DAL","secondary_spread":5.5,"planning_note":"GB is a valuable Week 15 timing asset; uncertainty ±4.5 points."}},{"sourceIndex":15,"record":{"week":16,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"abundant","primary":"BAL vs CLE","primary_spread":9.6,"secondary":"LAC at MIA","secondary_spread":7.8,"planning_note":"BAL and LAC retain late-season value; NO can become a timing alternative if its team quality improves."}},{"sourceIndex":16,"record":{"week":17,"source_class":"projected_spread_equivalent","scarcity":"bottleneck","primary":"BUF at MIA","primary_spread":9.4,"secondary":"SEA at CAR","secondary_spread":5.1,"planning_note":"Only one projected seven-point-class favorite. 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