{"schema":"draftadynasty.signal-verdicts/v1","mode":"historical_research","publicRankingInfluence":false,"artifact":{"schema":"draftadynasty.forecast-lab/v1","sha256":"d5b0aa30726c02b438c7b07dd1f48d7a444e2a12dbda18bae6c6868864f9765a","asOf":"2026-09-05T01:00:00+00:00","sourceRetrievedAt":"2026-09-05T01:24:43.335236+00:00"},"evaluationSeasons":["2024","2025"],"statistics":{"singleGame":{"marginInterval80HalfWidth":18.033613498390388,"observedCoverage":0.8228070175438597},"pooledGames":{"n":569,"modelBrier":0.21659219996570855,"eloBrier":0.2244140762329579,"pairedModelMinusElo":{"estimate":-0.007821876267249315,"lower95":-0.014035015682376228,"upper95":-0.001809560175917203,"blocks":44}},"seasons":{"2024":{"n":285,"pairedModelMinusElo":{"estimate":-0.005196840228314786,"lower95":-0.013910539690707008,"upper95":0.0042385314513881875,"blocks":22}},"2025":{"n":284,"pairedModelMinusElo":{"estimate":-0.01045615539082798,"lower95":-0.018626593933762405,"upper95":-0.0023928802051964796,"blocks":22}}},"nextSeasonPlayer":{"n":3009,"candidateMae":3.1026931451151216,"strongestBaseline":"age plus production","baselineMae":3.0983479733796253},"historicalMarket":{"n":569,"modelBrier":0.21659219996570855,"marketBrier":0.20593185243347056,"pairedModelMinusMarket":{"estimate":0.010660347532238044,"lower95":0.003978768422032456,"upper95":0.01850112588037893,"blocks":44},"quoteEffectiveTimesAvailable":false}},"verdicts":[{"id":"single_game","horizon":"One game","verdict":"No single-game verdict","tone":"unproven","measure":"80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%","explanation":"A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.","limitation":"The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change."},{"id":"pooled_games","horizon":"Across games","verdict":"Measured pooled edge over Elo","tone":"measured","measure":"Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)","explanation":"Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.","limitation":"This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup."},{"id":"across_seasons","horizon":"Across seasons","verdict":"Consistency still mixed","tone":"mixed","measure":"1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo","explanation":"2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024","limitation":"Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable."},{"id":"next_season_player","horizon":"Player to next season","verdict":"New signal not established","tone":"unproven","measure":"Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)","explanation":"The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.","limitation":"Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill."},{"id":"historical_market","horizon":"Historical market check","verdict":"Market ahead on paired subset","tone":"baseline","measure":"Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185","explanation":"Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.","limitation":"Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge."}]}