{"schemaVersion":"survivor-weekly-state/v1","status":"preseason-baseline","canonicalCategory":"NFL Survivor","contest":{"slug":"smartypants-2026","name":"Smartypants Survivor Pool","canonicalCategory":"NFL Survivor","aliases":["NFL Survivor Pool","Eliminator","Knockout Pool"],"season":2026,"sourceUrl":"http://foosball.crazytrain83.com/","maxEntriesPerPerson":3,"entryFeeUsd":10,"prizePoolUsd":23750,"totalEntries":2376,"prizeStructure":"winner-take-all","week18TiebreakTeams":5,"dataAsOf":"2026-08-21","status":"preseason"},"weeklyInput":{"contestSlug":"smartypants-2026","season":2026,"week":1,"fieldSize":2376,"lockAt":null,"candidates":[{"team":"LAC","opponent":"ARI","role":"safest","winProbability":0.808,"projectedOwnership":null,"futureValue":"high","probabilitySourceId":"preseason-grid-2026-08-21","ownershipSourceId":null,"dataAsOf":"2026-08-21","freshness":"stale","rationale":"Preseason survival anchor. Revalidate offensive-line health, quarterback status, the closing market, and field ownership before lock."},{"team":"JAX","opponent":"CLE","role":"best-ev","winProbability":0.702,"projectedOwnership":null,"futureValue":"medium","probabilitySourceId":"preseason-grid-2026-08-21","ownershipSourceId":null,"dataAsOf":"2026-08-21","freshness":"stale","rationale":"Preseason balanced alternative with lower projected future opportunity cost than the most valuable elite teams."},{"team":"DET","opponent":"NO","role":"leverage","winProbability":0.702,"projectedOwnership":null,"futureValue":"high","probabilitySourceId":"preseason-grid-2026-08-21","ownershipSourceId":null,"dataAsOf":"2026-08-21","freshness":"stale","rationale":"Preseason diversification candidate. Keep only if current market and team news leave Detroit in the same credible tier as the alternatives."}],"entries":[{"id":"A","label":"Entry A — Survival","strategy":"Highest-survival path; accept leverage only when it does not create a material elimination penalty.","weekOneTeam":"LAC","usedTeams":[],"reserveTeams":["NE","BUF","CIN","HOU","BAL","CAR"]},{"id":"B","label":"Entry B — Balanced","strategy":"Balance current-week safety, future opportunity cost, and field leverage.","weekOneTeam":"JAX","usedTeams":[],"reserveTeams":["NE","BUF","KC","CIN","HOU","BAL"]},{"id":"C","label":"Entry C — Leverage","strategy":"Diversify away from fragile chalk while preserving a premium Week 18 six-team package.","weekOneTeam":"DET","usedTeams":[],"reserveTeams":["NE","BUF","KC","SF","CIN","HOU"]}],"sources":[{"id":"smartypants-contest-2026-08-21","label":"Smartypants Survivor Pool contest pages","kind":"contest","url":"http://foosball.crazytrain83.com/","observedAt":"2026-08-21T00:00:00-07:00","freshness":"stale","note":"Preseason rules and field snapshot. Revalidate the pool site before every lock."},{"id":"preseason-grid-2026-08-21","label":"2026 preseason survivor probability grid","kind":"preseason-model","url":"https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/nfl-survivor-pool-picks-2026-grid-odds-strategy-126290","observedAt":"2026-08-21T00:00:00-07:00","freshness":"stale","note":"Planning baseline only. It must be superseded by current, source-labeled market and team information."}]},"portfolio":{"probabilities":[0.808,0.702,0.702],"atLeastOneSurvives":0.982949632,"expectedSurvivors":2.2119999999999997,"allSurvive":0.398185632,"wipeoutProbability":0.017050368,"assumption":"independence-scenario","allThreeSurvive":0.398185632},"reserveHealth":[{"entryId":"A","availableTeams":["NE","BUF","CIN","HOU","BAL","CAR"],"requiredTeams":6,"score":1,"status":"healthy"},{"entryId":"B","availableTeams":["NE","BUF","KC","CIN","HOU","BAL"],"requiredTeams":6,"score":1,"status":"healthy"},{"entryId":"C","availableTeams":["NE","BUF","KC","SF","CIN","HOU"],"requiredTeams":6,"score":1,"status":"healthy"}],"sources":[{"id":"smartypants-contest-2026-08-21","label":"Smartypants Survivor Pool contest pages","kind":"contest","url":"http://foosball.crazytrain83.com/","observedAt":"2026-08-21T00:00:00-07:00","freshness":"stale","note":"Preseason rules and field snapshot. Revalidate the pool site before every lock."},{"id":"preseason-grid-2026-08-21","label":"2026 preseason survivor probability grid","kind":"preseason-model","url":"https://www.rotowire.com/football/article/nfl-survivor-pool-picks-2026-grid-odds-strategy-126290","observedAt":"2026-08-21T00:00:00-07:00","freshness":"stale","note":"Planning baseline only. It must be superseded by current, source-labeled market and team information."}],"requiredCurrentInputs":["NFL schedule and home/away matchup","Current source-labeled moneylines, spreads, and no-vig win probabilities","Starting-quarterback status and material player injuries","Offensive-line availability and depth-chart changes","Transactions, suspensions, coaching changes, and role changes","Weather when it becomes decision-relevant","Team-strength and future-schedule context","Lawful pick-popularity or ownership data when available","Contest survivor count and revealed picks when available","Each entry's used teams and Week 18 six-team reserve health"],"dataPosture":{"currentRecommendationAvailable":false,"reason":"The checked-in probabilities are a stale preseason planning baseline, not a current lock recommendation.","missingValuesRemainNull":true,"usedTeamsMustBeExcluded":true,"immutableAfterLock":true,"portfolioAssumption":"independence-scenario"}}