{"schemaVersion":"survivor-historical-research/v1","status":"historical-analogue","scope":{"contest":"Circa Survivor","seasons":[2021,2022,2023,2024,2025],"transferTarget":"Smartypants Survivor Pool","smartypantsHistoryAvailable":false,"reason":"Smartypants historical selections require authenticated contest access. No Smartypants winner path is inferred or fabricated."},"metrics":{"seasons":5,"winningEntries":24,"winningSelections":480,"withinSeasonPairComparisons":55,"meanSharedTeamSetCount":17.236364,"meanSharedTeamSetShare":0.861818,"meanSameSegmentCount":8.381818,"meanSameSegmentShare":0.419091,"holidayModalWinnerShare":0.7625,"nonHolidayModalWinnerShare":0.605,"holidayMeanUniqueWinnerPicks":1.8,"nonHolidayMeanUniqueWinnerPicks":2.477778,"finalSegmentModalWinnerShare":0.485,"finalSegmentMeanUniqueWinnerPicks":3},"findings":[{"id":"core-set-overlap","label":"Same core team set","value":"86.2%","note":"Within a season, two winning entries shared 17.24 of their 20 teams on average."},{"id":"calendar-overlap","label":"Same exact timing","value":"41.9%","note":"The same winner pairs matched on only 8.38 exact segments. Assignment mattered more than team discovery."},{"id":"bottleneck-convergence","label":"Holiday convergence","value":"76.3%","note":"The modal winner choice was more concentrated on constrained Thanksgiving and Christmas legs."},{"id":"endgame-divergence","label":"Final-week modal share","value":"48.5%","note":"Endgame choices depended on each entry's remaining inventory rather than one universal best team."}],"rollingHorizonWeeks":8,"features":[{"id":"market_win_probability_no_vig","group":"current-week","status":"required-live","rationale":"Current survival probability remains the dominant weekly input.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"market_probability_dispersion","group":"current-week","status":"derived","rationale":"Source disagreement should lower confidence instead of being hidden inside one consensus number.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"pool_specific_ownership","group":"current-week","status":"required-live","rationale":"Leverage is created by the actual field's concentration, not generic public sentiment.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"ownership_source_type","group":"current-week","status":"required-live","rationale":"Smartypants-specific ownership, sharp-pool proxies, public proxies, and unavailable data must remain distinct.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"conditional_ev","group":"current-week","status":"derived","rationale":"A useful weekly choice depends on both its own survival chance and the projected surviving field after outcomes.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"rolling_horizon_path_value","group":"path","status":"derived","rationale":"Winning team sets converged far more than their exact weekly assignment; the path must be re-solved as information changes.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025","bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"future_value_discounted","group":"path","status":"derived","rationale":"Farther weeks matter but should be discounted because team strength, injuries, and roles become less certain.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors","bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"team_replacement_cost","group":"path","status":"research-next","rationale":"The cost of spending a team is the path value lost when it is removed from future feasible assignments.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025","bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"path_flexibility","group":"path","status":"research-next","rationale":"Near-optimal alternate assignments protect an entry when news invalidates the preferred path.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"bottleneck_week_coverage","group":"path","status":"derived","rationale":"Constrained segments produced materially higher winner convergence and must be reserved explicitly.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"ownership_concentration_hhi","group":"portfolio","status":"derived","rationale":"Concentration changes the equity impact of a popular-team loss even when individual win probabilities do not change.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"chalk_elimination_mass","group":"portfolio","status":"derived","rationale":"Ownership multiplied by upset probability approximates the field mass exposed to one popular loss.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"entry_pick_correlation","group":"portfolio","status":"derived","rationale":"Multiple entries should be evaluated as one interdependent portfolio rather than isolated cards.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"portfolio_wipeout_probability","group":"portfolio","status":"derived","rationale":"Complete elimination risk is a first-class portfolio metric, with the outcome-dependence assumption stated.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"marginal_diversification_gain","group":"portfolio","status":"research-next","rationale":"A different choice is valuable only when the reduction in shared risk exceeds the survival probability surrendered.","evidence":["circa-2024-winners-versus-other-survivors"]},{"id":"week18_six_team_reserve_health","group":"endgame","status":"derived","rationale":"Smartypants requires one regular Week 18 choice plus five additional unused-team tiebreak selections.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"reserve_redundancy","group":"endgame","status":"research-next","rationale":"Six unused teams are insufficient when several are weak or highly correlated; alternate package quality matters.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"availability_scarcity_vs_field","group":"endgame","status":"research-next","rationale":"Late value comes from holding useful teams that fewer opponents still have available.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"solo_win_probability","group":"endgame","status":"research-next","rationale":"In a top-heavy pool, the chance of avoiding a split can differ from the chance of merely surviving.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"qb_status_delta","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Starting-quarterback changes can materially reprice a matchup and its future utility.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"coach_qb_continuity","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Continuity is especially useful as an uncertainty input before early-season ratings stabilize.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"offensive_line_availability_delta","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Clustered line absences can change both current survival probability and downstream team value.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"injury_market_gap","group":"team-news","status":"derived","rationale":"News should affect the model only to the extent it is not already reflected in current market probability.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"line_movement","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Movement is evidence that the market's view changed and should trigger re-evaluation when material.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"weather_delta","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Weather belongs only when it is close enough to lock to change current probabilities or uncertainty.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]},{"id":"rest_and_incentive_uncertainty","group":"team-news","status":"required-live","rationale":"Late-season rest and playoff incentives can invalidate otherwise strong historical team ratings.","evidence":["circa-winning-paths-2021-2025"]},{"id":"data_freshness","group":"current-week","status":"required-live","rationale":"A probability or ownership estimate without a timestamp cannot be represented as current.","evidence":["bergman-imbrogno-rolling-horizon"]}],"rejectedHeuristics":["always_fade_chalk","always_save_elite_team","always_burn_low_future_value_team","winner_team_frequency_as_current_prior","static_full_season_path","missing_ownership_equals_zero","generic_road_team_penalty","generic_division_rivalry_penalty","underdog_bonus"],"sourcePaths":{"rawWinnerPaths":"history/survivor/research/circa-winning-paths-2021-2025.csv","researchReport":"docs/NFL_SURVIVOR_HISTORICAL_WINNER_RESEARCH_20260821.md"},"dataPosture":{"readOnly":true,"winnerPathsAreOutcomeConditioned":true,"descriptiveNotCausal":true,"historicalTeamFrequencyIsNotACurrentPrior":true,"missingSmartypantsHistoryRemainsUnavailable":true}}