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Football data
Updated 2026-07-14
Stats and tools for fantasy value, player performance, props, futures, and prediction markets. Each item shows whether it is live and where the data comes from.
Data status
See which football sources are available and when they were updated.
46
stats and tools
5
categories
01 / category
Format-aware player value, weekly outcomes, scarcity, and role durability.
Stat
What it tells you
How it works
Source
What it tells you
A format-aware estimate of a player's long-horizon roster value.
Why it matters: Compare roster needs and trade prices without treating consensus as truth.
How it works
Calibrated rest-of-career production + scarcity + age curve + role securityWhat it tells you
The disagreement between the model and a permissioned market benchmark.
Why it matters: Find players worth deeper review; not an automatic trade signal.
How it works
DraftADynasty fair value - rights-cleared market consensusWhat it tells you
How much usable scoring a player adds above a waiver-level option.
Why it matters: Compare positions on the same lineup-value scale.
How it works
Projected fantasy points - format-specific replacement baselineWhat it tells you
A range of plausible weekly fantasy outcomes instead of one brittle point estimate.
Why it matters: Balance lineup safety and upside.
How it works
10th / 50th / 90th percentiles from the outcome distributionWhat it tells you
The estimated matchup impact of a start/sit decision.
Why it matters: Rank close lineup calls by actual matchup leverage.
How it works
P(win with player) - P(win with replacement)What it tells you
How likely the current opportunity is to persist.
Why it matters: Separate sustainable value from fragile short-term production.
How it works
Weighted stability of snaps, routes, touches, depth-chart status, and contract horizonWhat it tells you
A distribution-aware rookie outcome estimate.
Why it matters: Compare rookies with veterans and future picks.
How it works
Calibrated probability of crossing position- and round-specific fantasy thresholdsWhat it tells you
How league settings change positional leverage.
Why it matters: Prevent one-size-fits-all rankings.
How it works
Replacement gap adjusted for teams, starters, premium scoring, and superflex02 / category
Usage, efficiency, defense adjustment, scheme, and opportunity quality.
Stat
What it tells you
How it works
Source
What it tells you
Down-, distance-, field-position-, and score-aware efficiency.
Why it matters: Compare player and offense efficiency beyond raw yards.
How it works
Mean change in expected points on credited playsWhat it tells you
How consistently an offense or player keeps drives on schedule.
Why it matters: Distinguish steady efficiency from a few explosive plays.
How it works
Share of plays with positive EPAWhat it tells you
Quarterback completion performance adjusted for throw difficulty.
Why it matters: Evaluate passing accuracy in context.
How it works
Actual completion rate - expected completion rateWhat it tells you
How often quarterback pressure becomes a sack.
Why it matters: Price matchup and quarterback pocket-management risk.
How it works
Sacks / pressured dropbacksWhat it tells you
Rushing output relative to blocking, defenders, location, and speed context.
Why it matters: Separate runner contribution from environment where approved tracking data exists.
How it works
Actual rushing yards - model-expected rushing yardsWhat it tells you
Contact-balance production independent of untouched running lanes.
Why it matters: Evaluate rushing sustainability and tackle-breaking style.
How it works
Rushing yards gained after first charted contact / attemptsWhat it tells you
How often a player earns a target while actually in the pattern.
Why it matters: Detect demand before box-score volume catches up.
How it works
Targets / routes runWhat it tells you
Receiving efficiency on every route, not only targets.
Why it matters: Compare pass catchers with different snap and target totals.
How it works
Receiving yards / routes runWhat it tells you
A role-volume signal that weights touches by fantasy importance.
Why it matters: Find workload changes before touchdowns distort perception.
How it works
Position-specific blend of routes, targets, carries, air yards, and high-value touchesWhat it tells you
How aggressively a team chooses to pass after situation adjustment.
Why it matters: Project team-level opportunity and game-script sensitivity.
How it works
Actual neutral-situation pass rate - expected pass rateWhat it tells you
A residual that controls for defensive and situational difficulty.
Why it matters: Avoid overreacting to raw production against extreme opponents.
How it works
Actual output - expected output given opponent, role, venue, and game stateWhat it tells you
How a player's demonstrated strengths fit the current offensive design.
Why it matters: Translate coordinator and role changes into explicit projection adjustments.
How it works
Similarity-weighted performance by personnel, motion, play action, alignment, and conceptWhat it tells you
A matchup rating that controls for schedule and small samples.
Why it matters: Improve weekly ranges without using simplistic fantasy-points-allowed tables.
How it works
Opponent efficiency allowed by position and concept, regressed toward league average03 / category
Projection, price, uncertainty, line movement, edge, and process quality.
Stat
What it tells you
How it works
Source
What it tells you
An independent projection comparable to a sportsbook line.
Why it matters: Establish the model side before looking at price.
How it works
Median simulated player outcome for the exact stat marketWhat it tells you
The market's central threshold after stale and duplicate quotes are removed.
Why it matters: Compare books and detect outlier lines.
How it works
Liquidity- and freshness-weighted median line across approved booksWhat it tells you
How the market threshold changed through time.
Why it matters: Track news response and price discovery.
How it works
Current consensus line - opening consensus lineWhat it tells you
Bookmaker margin removed from a complete market.
Why it matters: Compare model probability with a fairer market baseline.
How it works
Raw implied probability / sum of all outcome implied probabilitiesWhat it tells you
The probability disagreement after removing the book margin.
Why it matters: Rank research opportunities while retaining uncertainty and price sensitivity.
How it works
Model probability - no-vig market probabilityWhat it tells you
The model's average theoretical return per unit at the quoted price.
Why it matters: Compare opportunities on a common price-aware scale; estimates can be wrong.
How it works
p(win) × decimal profit - p(loss) × 1What it tells you
The uncertainty around the projection, including role and game-environment variance.
Why it matters: Avoid treating a small edge as meaningful when uncertainty is wide.
How it works
Calibrated percentile band from simulated player outcomesWhat it tells you
Whether an earlier decision beat the final market, independent of the result.
Why it matters: Evaluate process quality over a meaningful sample.
How it works
Price- and line-normalized difference between entry quote and consensus closeWhat it tells you
An independent probability for the game outcome.
Why it matters: Connect team expectations to player workload and scoring environment.
How it works
Calibrated simulation probability from team strength, injuries, venue, rest, and matchupWhat it tells you
A range of scoring environments rather than a single total.
Why it matters: Stress-test touchdowns, attempts, and game-script assumptions.
How it works
Simulated distribution of combined points04 / category
Super Bowl, conference, division, playoffs, awards, and season outcomes.
Stat
What it tells you
How it works
Source
What it tells you
American futures odds translated into a probability-like number before margin removal.
Why it matters: Make prices comparable across teams and markets.
How it works
Positive odds: 100/(odds+100); negative odds: -odds/(-odds+100)What it tells you
A normalized probability estimate after removing market overround.
Why it matters: Compare Super Bowl, conference, division, playoff, award, and win-total prices fairly.
How it works
Outcome implied probability / sum across mutually exclusive outcomesWhat it tells you
The price corresponding to DraftADynasty's estimated probability.
Why it matters: Expose model-market disagreement in both probability and familiar odds form.
How it works
American-odds conversion of calibrated model probabilityWhat it tells you
A decomposed route to winning the championship.
Why it matters: Explain why a title probability moves instead of showing a black-box number.
How it works
P(make playoffs) × conditional probabilities through conference and title roundsWhat it tells you
A data-quality check across playoffs, division, conference, and Super Bowl estimates.
Why it matters: Catch incoherent forecasts before publication.
How it works
Validate nested and mutually exclusive probabilities against logical constraintsWhat it tells you
The full range behind a team win projection.
Why it matters: Connect futures, schedule strength, and fantasy playoff environments.
How it works
Simulated probability for each regular-season win total05 / category
Probability, executable price, liquidity, depth, slippage, and freshness.
Stat
What it tells you
How it works
Source
What it tells you
The market-implied probability for a binary football outcome.
Why it matters: Track collective expectations without confusing display price with executable price.
How it works
Provider midpoint when liquid; otherwise clearly labeled last tradeWhat it tells you
The prices available to sell or buy at the top of the book.
Why it matters: Show executable context around the headline probability.
How it works
Highest executable bid and lowest executable askWhat it tells you
The immediate cost and uncertainty between buyers and sellers.
Why it matters: Identify markets where the displayed probability is less trustworthy or costly to execute.
How it works
Best ask - best bidWhat it tells you
How much size the market can absorb near the current price.
Why it matters: Compare liquidity beyond one top-of-book quote.
How it works
Cumulative quoted size within configured probability bands of midpointWhat it tells you
The price impact of moving through the order book.
Why it matters: Prevent headline prices from overstating practical liquidity.
How it works
Depth-weighted fill price - top-of-book price for a selected sizeWhat it tells you
How much activity occurred, with units and window kept explicit.
Why it matters: Distinguish active price discovery from a thin market.
How it works
Provider-reported contracts or notional traded over a stated windowWhat it tells you
Unsettled exposure still open in the market.
Why it matters: Measure participation without equating it to recent trading activity.
How it works
Provider-reported outstanding contracts or positionsWhat it tells you
How stale the displayed order-book state may be.
Why it matters: Fail closed or warn when market data misses freshness targets.
How it works
Current time - source timestampWhat it tells you
The gap between DraftADynasty and a sufficiently liquid market.
Why it matters: Surface research questions while down-weighting stale or wide markets.
How it works
Calibrated model probability - liquidity-qualified market probabilityExamples
Illustrations only. These are not current odds or market prices.
remove the vig
61.2% / 38.8%
A -170 / +150 example adjusted to total 100%. Compare only matching lines, rules, books, and times.
expected value
0.125 units
A 45% estimated chance at +150. The result depends on the data and current price.
exchange book
49.0% mid / 6.0% wide
At a 46¢ bid and 52¢ ask, midpoint is a mark—not a guaranteed fill. Depth determines practical slippage.
Data sources
For information only. Odds and market prices can change quickly.