NFL survivor

Our survivor picks

2026 · For-fun entries

Jalen & Greg’s picks

Owner-reported selections and results

Jalen used Miami’s opponent in Weeks 1–5. Miami is on bye in Week 6, so he confirmed the unused Los Angeles Rams against Arizona.

Week 6 · Jalen · Pending

Los Angeles Rams

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Oct 18, 2026, 1:05 PM Pacific

Owner report received Oct 12, 2026, 10:13 PM Pacific. This is not claimed as the original selection time. Result pending.

Official game schedule

Jalen

Active

Greg

Eliminated in Week 5

2026 weekly selections for Jalen and Greg. Early history is reported retrospectively.
Week	Jalen	Greg
1	Las Vegas Raiders Reported history	Jacksonville Jaguars Reported history
2	San Francisco 49ers Reported history	San Francisco 49ers Reported history
3	Kansas City Chiefs Reported history	Kansas City Chiefs Reported history
4	Minnesota Vikings Reported history	Baltimore Ravens Reported history
5	Cincinnati Bengals Survived	Dallas Cowboys Eliminated
6	Los Angeles Rams Selected · result pending	No pick — entry eliminated

Weeks 1–5 are retrospective owner-reported history, not proof of pregame publication. Results shown here describe these for-fun entries, not verified official pool standings. Recording a selection is not an external contest submission.

Corrections and earlier eliminated entries

Greg switched to Baltimore in Week 4. An earlier update incorrectly attributed Minnesota's result to his entry.

Separate original entries ended with these picks. They are not Jalen’s or Greg’s for-fun pick histories above.

Week 1 · Los Angeles Chargers · Eliminated
Week 2 · Baltimore Ravens · Eliminated

Open my saved pool →

Preseason strategy archive · August 21, 2026

NFL survivor

Survive the week. Preserve the season.

How the model thinks

DraftADynasty treats survivor as a portfolio problem, not a weekly favorite list. The model weighs current win probability, player and team developments, field leverage, future-team scarcity, multi-entry correlation, and the pool's actual endgame rules.

preseason planning baselinestale until revalidated

tracked contest

Smartypants Survivor Pool

entries: 2,376
prize pool: $23,750
max entries: 3
Week 18 extras: 5

Open contest source →

Week 1 provisional portfolio

Three entries, three jobs

These are stale preseason recommendations, not locked submissions. Current market movement, starting-quarterback news, player injuries, offensive-line availability, depth-chart changes, weather, and sourced ownership must supersede them.

Entry A — Survivalsafest

LAC

vs ARI

Preseason survival: 80.8%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason survival anchor. Revalidate offensive-line health, quarterback status, the closing market, and field ownership before lock.

Entry job: Highest-survival path; accept leverage only when it does not create a material elimination penalty.

Entry B — Balancedbest-ev

JAX

vs CLE

Preseason survival: 70.2%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason balanced alternative with lower projected future opportunity cost than the most valuable elite teams.

Entry job: Balance current-week safety, future opportunity cost, and field leverage.

Entry C — Leverageleverage

DET

vs NO

Preseason survival: 70.2%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason diversification candidate. Keep only if current market and team news leave Detroit in the same credible tier as the alternatives.

Entry job: Diversify away from fragile chalk while preserving a premium Week 18 six-team package.

portfolio scenario math

at least one survives: 98.3%
expected surviving entries: 2.21
all three survive: 39.8%
complete wipeout: 1.7%

decision model

More than point spreads

Current survival probability is the dominant input.
Ownership leverage matters most in large fields and should never justify a reckless probability concession.
Missing ownership is excluded and weights are renormalized; it is never silently converted to zero percent.
Future value measures the opportunity cost of spending a team now instead of in a stronger future matchup.
Scarcity compares the user's remaining teams with the field's remaining-team inventory when opponent pick history is available.
Multi-entry diversification reduces portfolio wipeout risk while preserving independent paths to first place.
Week 18 reserve health explicitly values one regular pick plus five additional unused tiebreak teams for this contest.
Every current recommendation must carry source, timestamp, and freshness state; stale preseason values remain planning baselines only.

Week 18 reserve health

Plan backward from the tiebreaker

This contest can require one normal Week 18 selection plus five additional unused teams. DraftADynasty therefore tracks a six-team endgame package for every live entry instead of treating future value as one generic number.

Entry A — Survival

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFCINHOUBALCAR

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

Entry B — Balanced

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFKCCINHOUBAL

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

Entry C — Leverage

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFKCSFCINHOU

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

continuous intelligence loop

New information must change the model

A recommendation is current only when the inputs below are source-labeled and fresh enough for the decision window. Missing data remains unavailable; ownership is never silently treated as zero percent.

NFL schedule and home/away matchup
Current source-labeled moneylines, spreads, and no-vig win probabilities
Starting-quarterback status and material player injuries
Offensive-line availability and depth-chart changes
Transactions, suspensions, coaching changes, and role changes
Weather when it becomes decision-relevant
Team-strength and future-schedule context
Lawful pick-popularity or ownership data when available
Contest survivor count and revealed picks when available
Each entry's used teams and Week 18 six-team reserve health

source ledger

Smartypants Survivor Pool contest pages

stale

Preseason rules and field snapshot. Revalidate the pool site before every lock.

Open source →

2026 preseason survivor probability grid

stale

Planning baseline only. It must be superseded by current, source-labeled market and team information.

Open source →

methodology →data sources →

canonical naming

NFL Survivor is the primary product term. NFL Survivor Pool, Eliminator, and Knockout Pool are discovery aliases.

Loading DraftADynasty…

Week

Jalen

Greg

Las Vegas Raiders

Reported history

Jacksonville Jaguars

Reported history

San Francisco 49ers

Reported history

San Francisco 49ers

Reported history

Kansas City Chiefs

Reported history

Kansas City Chiefs

Reported history

Minnesota Vikings

Reported history

Baltimore Ravens

Reported history

Cincinnati Bengals

Survived

Dallas Cowboys

Eliminated

Los Angeles Rams

Selected · result pending

No pick — entry eliminated

Survive the week. Preserve the season.

How the model thinks

preseason planning baselinestale until revalidated

Three entries, three jobs

Entry A — Survivalsafest

LAC

vs ARI

Preseason survival: 80.8%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason survival anchor. Revalidate offensive-line health, quarterback status, the closing market, and field ownership before lock.

Entry job: Highest-survival path; accept leverage only when it does not create a material elimination penalty.

Entry B — Balancedbest-ev

JAX

vs CLE

Preseason survival: 70.2%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason balanced alternative with lower projected future opportunity cost than the most valuable elite teams.

Entry job: Balance current-week safety, future opportunity cost, and field leverage.

Entry C — Leverageleverage

DET

vs NO

Preseason survival: 70.2%
Ownership: not sourced
Data state: stale
As of: 2026-08-21

Preseason diversification candidate. Keep only if current market and team news leave Detroit in the same credible tier as the alternatives.

Entry job: Diversify away from fragile chalk while preserving a premium Week 18 six-team package.

More than point spreads

Current survival probability is the dominant input.

Ownership leverage matters most in large fields and should never justify a reckless probability concession.

Missing ownership is excluded and weights are renormalized; it is never silently converted to zero percent.

Future value measures the opportunity cost of spending a team now instead of in a stronger future matchup.

Scarcity compares the user's remaining teams with the field's remaining-team inventory when opponent pick history is available.

Multi-entry diversification reduces portfolio wipeout risk while preserving independent paths to first place.

Week 18 reserve health explicitly values one regular pick plus five additional unused tiebreak teams for this contest.

Every current recommendation must carry source, timestamp, and freshness state; stale preseason values remain planning baselines only.

Plan backward from the tiebreaker

Entry A — Survival

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFCINHOUBALCAR

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

Entry B — Balanced

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFKCCINHOUBAL

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

Entry C — Leverage

healthy

6/6 reserve slots available

NEBUFKCSFCINHOU

Soft reserves only. Spend one when preserving it would create an excessive current-week elimination penalty.

New information must change the model

NFL schedule and home/away matchup

Current source-labeled moneylines, spreads, and no-vig win probabilities

Starting-quarterback status and material player injuries

Offensive-line availability and depth-chart changes

Transactions, suspensions, coaching changes, and role changes

Weather when it becomes decision-relevant

Team-strength and future-schedule context

Lawful pick-popularity or ownership data when available

Contest survivor count and revealed picks when available

Each entry's used teams and Week 18 six-team reserve health