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Candidate signal families Research priorities, proposed mechanisms, targets, correlation groups and required tests. Hypotheses are not confirmed effects.
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21 matches · 1–20 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
Record 1
signal id identity_and_development_curve
research priority high
causal channel slow_prior_constrains_development_and_durability source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"nflverse_rosters_schedules",
"collegefootballdata_api"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"player_week",
"rest_of_season",
"career_value"
]
correlation group slow_player_prior
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy unknown_with_coverage required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"rolling_origin",
"rookie_veteran_cohorts",
"position_cohorts",
"ablation",
"identity_leakage"
] Record 2
signal id active_and_workload_probability
research priority critical
causal channel availability_precedes_opportunity_and_efficiency source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"official_nfl_injury_reports",
"nflverse_rosters_schedules",
"nflverse_depth_charts"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"player_week",
"team_game",
"survivor"
]
correlation group availability
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy silence_not_healthy required tests Inspect required tests (6) [
"brier",
"log_loss",
"calibration",
"injury_status_cohorts",
"late_news_cutoff",
"ablation"
] Record 3
signal id snap_route_touch_opportunity
research priority critical
causal channel direct_opportunity_precedes_counting_stats source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"nflverse_snap_counts_advanced",
"ffopportunity_expected_points"
] targets Inspect targets (2) [
"player_week",
"rest_of_season"
]
correlation group player_opportunity
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy explicit_imputation_and_coverage required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"temporal_holdout",
"opportunity_cohorts",
"conversion_residual_ablation",
"calibration",
"correlated_family_ablation"
] Record 4
signal id high_value_role
research priority high
causal channel touch_context_changes_td_and_reception_opportunity source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"nflverse_ftn_charting",
"ffopportunity_expected_points"
] targets Inspect targets (2) [
"player_week",
"rest_of_season"
]
correlation group player_opportunity
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy absent_not_zero required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"ablation",
"role_change_cohorts",
"touchdown_calibration",
"multiple_testing_control"
] Record 5
signal id expected_points_and_conversion_residual
research priority high
causal channel opportunity_quality_separates_volume_from_conversion source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"ffopportunity_expected_points",
"nflverse_play_by_play"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"player_week",
"rest_of_season",
"dynasty_value"
]
correlation group expected_production
initial state shadow_candidate
missingness policy absent_not_zero required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"out_of_sample_residual_persistence",
"regression_to_mean",
"position_cohorts",
"ablation"
] Record 6
signal id quarterback_quality_and_behavior
research priority critical
causal channel qb_state_propagates_to_team_and_teammates source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"nflverse_next_gen_weekly",
"official_nfl_injury_reports"
] targets Inspect targets (4) [
"player_week",
"team_game",
"season_team_strength",
"survivor"
]
correlation group quarterback_environment
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy probability_weight_starter_backup required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"qb_start_cohorts",
"pressure_cohorts",
"backup_delta_ablation",
"game_probability_calibration"
] Record 7
signal id offensive_line_and_pressure_environment
research priority high
causal channel protection_changes_pressure_sack_rush_and_drive_outcomes source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"nflverse_snap_counts_advanced",
"nflverse_ftn_charting"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"player_week",
"team_game",
"survivor"
]
correlation group line_matchup
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy fallback_proxy_lower_confidence required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"interaction_ablation",
"pressure_sack_decomposition",
"lineup_change_cohorts",
"coverage_stability"
] Record 8
signal id team_efficiency_pace_and_play_calling
research priority critical
causal channel team_efficiency_and_pace_create_opportunity_distribution source ids Inspect source ids (1) [
"nflverse_play_by_play"
] targets Inspect targets (4) [
"team_game",
"player_week",
"season_team_strength",
"survivor"
]
correlation group team_efficiency
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy shrink_to_declared_prior required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"opponent_adjustment",
"rolling_origin",
"early_season_cohorts",
"market_baseline_comparison",
"ablation"
] Record 9
signal id personnel_motion_and_scheme
research priority medium
causal channel tactics_change_leverage_and_role_conditionally source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"nflverse_ftn_charting",
"nflverse_play_by_play"
] targets Inspect targets (2) [
"player_week",
"team_game"
]
correlation group scheme_tactics
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy consistent_coverage_only required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"concept_matchup_ablation",
"coordinator_change_cohorts",
"coverage_threshold",
"multiple_testing_control"
] Record 10
signal id receiver_route_coverage_matchup
research priority medium
causal channel route_alignment_coverage_interaction_changes_targets_and_efficiency source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_next_gen_weekly",
"nflverse_ftn_charting",
"nflverse_play_by_play"
] targets Inspect targets (2) [
"player_week",
"team_game"
]
correlation group matchup_interaction
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy no_assignment_claim_without_identity required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"matchup_interaction_ablation",
"receiver_archetype_cohorts",
"defender_identity_coverage",
"season_stability"
] Record 11
signal id rushing_box_and_tackle_environment
research priority medium
causal channel box_and_tackle_context_changes_rush_efficiency_and_tails source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_next_gen_weekly",
"nflverse_ftn_charting",
"nflverse_play_by_play"
] targets Inspect targets (2) [
"player_week",
"team_game"
]
correlation group matchup_interaction
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy separate_team_fallback required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"expected_rush_ablation",
"box_count_cohorts",
"explosive_tail_calibration",
"season_stability"
] Record 12
signal id depth_competition_and_role_entropy
research priority high
causal channel role_concentration_predicts_stability_and_breakout_paths source ids Inspect source ids (4) [
"nflverse_depth_charts",
"nflverse_snap_counts_advanced",
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"sleeper_public_context"
] targets Inspect targets (4) [
"player_week",
"rest_of_season",
"waiver",
"dynasty_value"
]
correlation group role_stability
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy unknown_increases_entropy required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"role_change_detection",
"breakout_cohorts",
"injury_interaction",
"ablation"
] Record 13
signal id weather_venue_and_surface
research priority high_when_material
causal channel material_conditions_change_play_calling_kicking_and_variance source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"nws_forecast_vintages",
"nflverse_rosters_schedules"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"player_week",
"team_game",
"survivor"
]
correlation group game_environment
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy no_generic_penalty required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"forecast_not_observation",
"outdoor_roof_cohorts",
"nonlinear_thresholds",
"calibration",
"market_residual_ablation"
] Record 14
signal id rest_travel_altitude_body_clock
research priority medium
causal channel schedule_burden_may_shift_team_distribution source ids Inspect source ids (1) [
"nflverse_rosters_schedules"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"team_game",
"season_team_strength",
"survivor"
]
correlation group game_environment
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy deterministic_schedule_features_only required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"team_fixed_effects",
"schedule_cohorts",
"market_residual_ablation",
"multiple_testing_control"
] Record 15
signal id schedule_strength_distribution
research priority high
causal channel future_path_is_distribution_not_static_rank source ids Inspect source ids (3) [
"nflverse_rosters_schedules",
"nflverse_play_by_play",
"official_nfl_injury_reports"
] targets Inspect targets (4) [
"rest_of_season",
"season_team_strength",
"dynasty_value",
"survivor"
]
correlation group schedule_path
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy propagate_future_uncertainty required tests Inspect required tests (4) [
"rolling_schedule_reforecast",
"opponent_strength_ablation",
"future_information_guard",
"calibration"
] Record 16
signal id human_adp_and_acquisition_cost
research priority critical_context
causal channel human_selection_estimates_cost_not_football_output source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"fantasyfootballcalculator_adp",
"sleeper_public_context"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"draft_arrival",
"draft_decision",
"market_value"
]
correlation group market_expectation
initial state production_context
missingness policy unavailable_removes_timing required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"arrival_calibration",
"format_match",
"sample_size",
"human_only_sample",
"source_attribution"
] Record 17
signal id market_probability_and_total_baseline
research priority critical_baseline
causal channel market_is_external_baseline_and_residual_target source ids Inspect source ids (1) [
"historical_market_lines_research"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"team_game",
"survivor",
"player_week"
]
correlation group market_expectation
initial state shadow_candidate
missingness policy retain_nonmarket_baseline required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"no_vig",
"opening_current_closing_separation",
"market_only_baseline",
"residual_lift",
"shared_information_ablation"
] Record 18
signal id exact_league_scoring_roster_and_draft_context
research priority critical_context
causal channel league_rules_translate_scenarios_into_decision_utility source ids Inspect source ids (1) [
"sleeper_public_context"
] targets Inspect targets (5) [
"draft_decision",
"lineup",
"waiver",
"trade",
"title_probability"
]
correlation group league_context
initial state production_context
missingness policy fail_closed_no_defaults required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"scoring_parity",
"legal_lineup",
"draft_geometry",
"provider_identity",
"human_agent_parity"
] Record 19
signal id public_draft_transaction_and_manager_market
research priority high_context
causal channel observed_behavior_estimates_market_context_not_talent source ids Inspect source ids (1) [
"sleeper_public_context"
] targets Inspect targets (4) [
"draft_arrival",
"trade_fit",
"waiver",
"manager_context"
]
correlation group behavioral_market
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy retain_sample_and_unknown_outcome required tests Inspect required tests (6) [
"format_isolation",
"time_decay",
"manager_shrinkage",
"privacy",
"selection_bias",
"outcome_calibration"
] Record 20
signal id college_to_nfl_translation
research priority high_for_rookies
causal channel college_context_forms_rookie_prior source ids Inspect source ids (2) [
"collegefootballdata_api",
"nflverse_rosters_schedules"
] targets Inspect targets (3) [
"rookie_projection",
"dynasty_value",
"career_value"
]
correlation group prospect_prior
initial state research_candidate
missingness policy retain_missing_by_position required tests Inspect required tests (5) [
"draft_year_holdout",
"position_cohorts",
"draft_capital_baseline",
"calibration",
"feature_family_ablation"
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