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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 1–20 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_01_NE_SEA
away Team NE
elo Probability 0.6406679669320707
expected Away Score 19.12410368556533
expected Home Margin 5.418617285643572
expected Home Score 24.5427209712089
expected Total 43.66682465677423 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.861019273114092,
"allowedSum": 35.826387712268186,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 45.45483016895719,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 5.272626017155577,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 4.411606744041485,
"scoringSum": 49.37750415168839,
"winRateDifference": 0.14523307007565733
}
game Id 2026_01_NE_SEA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-09 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.614996212746815,
23.45223078403396
]
home Team SEA
home Win Probability 0.6833377134376994
kickoff 2026-09-10T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.31001584451345,
60.02363346903501
]
week 1 2026_01_SF_LA
away Team SF
elo Probability 0.5220024005375744
expected Away Score 22.51295193343141
expected Home Margin 1.6660495846543668
expected Home Score 24.179001518085773
expected Total 46.69195345151718 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.3001067810522571,
"allowedSum": 48.611902210836334,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 15.29871385640331,
"homeField": 0,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 5.2391334142540265,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 4.939026633201767,
"scoringSum": 49.78483605569664,
"winRateDifference": 0.001736688118697538
}
game Id 2026_01_SF_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.36756391373602,
19.69966308304475
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.5431516489410508
kickoff 2026-09-11T00:35:00Z market Inspect market {
"caveat": "Observed outcome price; quote age unknown. Market resolves ties/cancellations 50-50; model conditions on a decisive game. No calibrated edge or blend.",
"comparableProbability": false,
"conditionId": "0x5010f84522ade23439a6e7b173896fdcdeea448d9a538127b2f697fcb28a3dfc",
"eventId": "776490",
"gameId": "2026_01_SF_LA",
"homeProbability": 0.645,
"homeTokenId": "41514607283449108762234032473096133658801591845994412310798346192428634162569",
"liquidity": 26853.0083,
"marketId": "3239630",
"matchMethod": "exact_team_pair_and_schedule_kickoff",
"observedAt": "2026-09-05T00:06:13.509Z",
"provider": "Polymarket",
"quoteEffectiveAt": null,
"rules": "In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 10 at 8:35PM ET:\nIf 49ers wins, the market will resolve to \"49ers\".\nIf Rams wins, the market will resolve to \"Rams\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.",
"rulesSha256": "0f563a75e3adbfd01bc490c3e281c47b4fa17b64cbbdc0c18278ae6ef2bd51a6",
"sourceSha256": "d8dc46cab89cde3c04f53db88421aa0c9507570e82c768903eb7feb5bcb88db6",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-sf-la-2026-09-11",
"volume24h": 909.943211
}
neutral true total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.3351446392564,
63.04876226377796
]
week 1 2026_01_ATL_PIT
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.6275016571397211
expected Away Score 20.648906742274356
expected Home Margin 1.333300597209361
expected Home Score 21.982207339483715
expected Total 42.63111408175807 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.2586628678878462,
"allowedSum": 45.57489703206147,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 35.59621281087357,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -2.217247214737706,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.475910082625557,
"scoringSum": 42.15876653159325,
"winRateDifference": -0.12084910221279987
}
game Id 2026_01_ATL_PIT
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.700312901181025,
19.36691409559975
]
home Team PIT
home Win Probability 0.5562365642706633
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.27430526949729,
58.98792289401885
]
week 1 2026_01_BAL_IND
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.5177967182356755
expected Away Score 24.102171269808213
expected Home Margin -2.3673163028226365
expected Home Score 21.734854966985576
expected Total 45.83702623679379 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.163800431523828,
"allowedSum": 48.74781799741673,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -42.628347273677264,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -6.504101085258464,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.3403006537346371,
"scoringSum": 47.826524828524015,
"winRateDifference": -0.20353163245477496
}
game Id 2026_01_BAL_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.400929801213024,
15.66629719556775
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.41666823944575143
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.48021742453301,
62.19383504905457
]
week 1 2026_01_BUF_HOU
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.5518268426349278
expected Away Score 22.17035211501868
expected Home Margin 1.073233117824497
expected Home Score 23.24358523284318
expected Total 45.41393734786186 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.1506481669249844,
"allowedSum": 42.56491339191196,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -18.857207778158227,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 0.3375255529226884,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.813122614002296,
"scoringSum": 50.012013334201335,
"winRateDifference": 0.08931687632153373
}
game Id 2026_01_BUF_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.96038038056589,
19.106846616214884
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.5271183923509221
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z market Inspect market {
"caveat": "Observed outcome price; quote age unknown. Market resolves ties/cancellations 50-50; model conditions on a decisive game. No calibrated edge or blend.",
"comparableProbability": false,
"conditionId": "0xcb50e6c5a72841b61cf760b39af412293fb2ccbe70c1bc85255be24c80e05281",
"eventId": "795812",
"gameId": "2026_01_BUF_HOU",
"homeProbability": 0.505,
"homeTokenId": "85983273725650458182679003873751104933525333440340527445343292403915061696135",
"liquidity": 18887.9146,
"marketId": "3335153",
"matchMethod": "exact_team_pair_and_schedule_kickoff",
"observedAt": "2026-09-05T00:06:12.395Z",
"provider": "Polymarket",
"quoteEffectiveAt": null,
"rules": "In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET:\nIf Bills wins, the market will resolve to \"Bills\".\nIf Texans wins, the market will resolve to \"Texans\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.",
"rulesSha256": "5436730ede86a627921e76e07cc15aa3b7662a0a0779d97b65e3fa3e5c8a3911",
"sourceSha256": "355e55ecd0c92ebb8a881bc57b3a00f6670827c0ed3736c1635816e6c26ac2f2",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-buf-hou-2026-09-13",
"volume24h": 301.923254
}
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.05712853560108,
61.77074616012264
]
week 1 2026_01_CHI_CAR
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.5060823547582974
expected Away Score 22.750691904797453
expected Home Margin -1.789593314723852
expected Home Score 20.9610985900736
expected Total 43.71179049487105 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.8755746046691293,
"allowedSum": 46.05980288184338,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -50.77333853081814,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -3.999840489418107,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.1242658847489757,
"scoringSum": 44.38477014367744,
"winRateDifference": -0.12806561656571092
}
game Id 2026_01_CHI_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.82320681311424,
16.244020183666535
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.4368751862887042
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.354981682610273,
60.068599307131834
]
week 1 2026_01_CLE_JAX
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.6761643383795457
expected Away Score 17.734256530867846
expected Home Margin 8.056035359731803
expected Home Score 25.790291890599647
expected Total 43.52454842146749 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.1709853758751692,
"allowedSum": 40.69950206352683,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 72.89103568095834,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 10.564228989210346,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 9.39324361333517,
"scoringSum": 46.23214794183106,
"winRateDifference": 0.18474121804445748
}
game Id 2026_01_CLE_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-9.977578138658584,
26.08964885812219
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.7582493370140141
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.167739609206713,
59.881357233728274
]
week 1 2026_01_NO_DET
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.6941830813899991
expected Away Score 20.080231259888123
expected Home Margin 3.5865052729049
expected Home Score 23.666736532793024
expected Total 43.74696779268115 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.722613901081143,
"allowedSum": 44.41923594998656,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 87.40500671136147,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -1.5320578066333348,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.190556094447807,
"scoringSum": 45.20244013006184,
"winRateDifference": -0.06034066154775386
}
game Id 2026_01_NO_DET
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.447108225485488,
21.62011877129529
]
home Team DET
home Win Probability 0.6350718350140697
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.390158980420367,
60.10377660494193
]
week 1 2026_01_NYJ_TEN
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.5629128831348873
expected Away Score 20.071333800456088
expected Home Margin 2.517521256875435
expected Home Score 22.58885505733152
expected Total 42.66018885778761 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.421479453919119,
"allowedSum": 56.58642940173007,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -11.05072703166229,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 5.760520978157719,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.3390415242385956,
"scoringSum": 35.99920352248885,
"winRateDifference": 0.06252184391968313
}
game Id 2026_01_NYJ_TEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.516092241514952,
20.55113475526582
]
home Team TEN
home Win Probability 0.5828945825311517
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z market Inspect market {
"caveat": "Observed outcome price; quote age unknown. Market resolves ties/cancellations 50-50; model conditions on a decisive game. No calibrated edge or blend.",
"comparableProbability": false,
"conditionId": "0x690f27380314015502fdb1d7313c820a3dec804afb9484271d32fdabca4d715d",
"eventId": "795820",
"gameId": "2026_01_NYJ_TEN",
"homeProbability": 0.535,
"homeTokenId": "66505697730771529710516677323284974248478735394543613905522263282430791435885",
"liquidity": 20998.3994,
"marketId": "3335193",
"matchMethod": "exact_team_pair_and_schedule_kickoff",
"observedAt": "2026-09-05T00:06:12.977Z",
"provider": "Polymarket",
"quoteEffectiveAt": null,
"rules": "In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 1:00PM ET:\nIf Jets wins, the market will resolve to \"Jets\".\nIf Titans wins, the market will resolve to \"Titans\".\nIf the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed.\nIf the game is canceled entirely or ends in a tie, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.",
"rulesSha256": "64c746968783bc577830f0205f4befff9245925d7bc33e783e77272488d40dd9",
"sourceSha256": "cecba3c56fad9ccd07a27ca03192e7621300623d04629ba030323bdc053b3115",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/nfl-nyj-ten-2026-09-13",
"volume24h": 101.798517
}
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.30338004552683,
59.01699767004839
]
week 1 2026_01_TB_CIN
away Team TB
elo Probability 0.5657254681302172
expected Away Score 20.909307905004376
expected Home Margin 2.488738219217314
expected Home Score 23.398046124221693
expected Total 44.30735402922607 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.2029877539090776,
"allowedSum": 45.550826389490226,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -9.06345213127952,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 3.1146361010919468,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 4.317623855001024,
"scoringSum": 45.688235116601405,
"winRateDifference": 0.030561197666813256
}
game Id 2026_01_TB_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.544875279173072,
20.5223517176077
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.5842220413686792
kickoff 2026-09-13T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.95054521696529,
60.66416284148685
]
week 1 2026_01_ARI_LAC
away Team ARI
elo Probability 0.7093652298540166
expected Away Score 17.661784826329594
expected Home Margin 6.357445594002737
expected Home Score 24.019230420332335
expected Total 41.68101524666193 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -10.00385668000224,
"allowedSum": 49.117388990000705,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 100.00893094699518,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 7.453421146374277,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.550435533627965,
"scoringSum": 37.888277259628495,
"winRateDifference": 0.24986377159577497
}
game Id 2026_01_ARI_LAC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.67616790438765,
24.391059092393125
]
home Team LAC
home Win Probability 0.7080524328333925
kickoff 2026-09-13T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.324206434401148,
58.03782405892271
]
week 1 2026_01_GB_MIN
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.5984019412377405
expected Away Score 18.66031617684251
expected Home Margin 4.148907667828978
expected Home Score 22.809223844671493
expected Total 41.46954002151401 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.120264476886593,
"allowedSum": 41.05746254723721,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 14.28055554757998,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 6.2157014425224135,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.904563034364184,
"scoringSum": 41.63120016838876,
"winRateDifference": 0.32156434553187996
}
game Id 2026_01_GB_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.884705830561408,
22.182521166219367
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.6347897894028722
kickoff 2026-09-13T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.112731209253223,
57.82634883377479
]
week 1 2026_01_MIA_LV
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.4820719425047739
expected Away Score 21.40474322026271
expected Home Margin -2.172524355597368
expected Home Score 19.23221886466534
expected Total 40.63696208492805 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.172556311226305,
"allowedSum": 48.4872355249819,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -67.46303321716778,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -2.699432142684204,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.871988453910504,
"scoringSum": 36.043483600616526,
"winRateDifference": -0.14665972452652587
}
game Id 2026_01_MIA_LV
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.206137853987755,
15.86108914279302
]
home Team LV
home Win Probability 0.4290126465584257
kickoff 2026-09-13T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
24.28015327266727,
56.99377089718883
]
week 1 2026_01_WAS_PHI
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.6892910439895084
expected Away Score 18.43725515953548
expected Home Margin 5.448816674367411
expected Home Score 23.88607183390289
expected Total 42.32332699343837 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.039225405124981,
"allowedSum": 44.33025324027129,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": 83.41954559236342,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 4.985829468766802,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.05339593635817863,
"scoringSum": 41.91776085334974,
"winRateDifference": 0.07117968321350648
}
game Id 2026_01_WAS_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.584796824022977,
23.4824301727578
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.687850982099148
kickoff 2026-09-13T20:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.96651818117759,
58.68013580569915
]
week 1 2026_01_DAL_NYG
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.4891089729662064
expected Away Score 22.49246967188807
expected Home Margin 1.1749726331923198
expected Home Score 23.667442305080392
expected Total 46.159911976968466 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.556766311600693,
"allowedSum": 49.882009260936016,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -62.56905792674115,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": 5.599557443795617,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.04279113219492814,
"scoringSum": 47.675373205968015,
"winRateDifference": 0.011693038191531556
}
game Id 2026_01_DAL_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.85864086519807,
19.208586131582702
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.5240298278916765
kickoff 2026-09-14T00:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.80310316470769,
62.51672078922925
]
week 1 2026_01_DEN_KC
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.5128492806698973
expected Away Score 20.919983497132
expected Home Margin -1.8070868321776763
expected Home Score 19.112896664954327
expected Total 40.03288016208633 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.1292076100064996,
"allowedSum": 39.65033532992054,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 21,
"eloDifference": -46.06943898551481,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 21,
"marginDifference": -4.607888889598245,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.47868127959174,
"scoringSum": 39.45533023528595,
"winRateDifference": -0.36595388320714695
}
game Id 2026_01_DEN_KC
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-14 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.840700330568065,
16.22652666621271
]
home Team KC
home Win Probability 0.45717314711527773
kickoff 2026-09-15T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
23.67607134982555,
56.38968897434711
]
week 1 2026_02_DET_BUF
away Team DET
elo Probability 0.613047921022557
expected Away Score 21.753264417969497
expected Home Margin 4.608612728907701
expected Home Score 26.3618771468772
expected Total 48.115141564846695 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.7131441461153791,
"allowedSum": 46.42870570495232,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 24.93489585910197,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 3.929214007962373,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.216069861846993,
"scoringSum": 49.609066086356634,
"winRateDifference": 0.11507912070679648
}
game Id 2026_02_DET_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-17 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.425000769482686,
22.64222622729809
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.6461170934716408
kickoff 2026-09-18T00:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.758332752585915,
64.47195037710748
]
week 2 2026_02_CAR_ATL
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.6166038264297283
expected Away Score 20.44910529283485
expected Home Margin 3.955647555501853
expected Home Score 24.404752848336702
expected Total 44.85385814117156 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.5509087932816001,
"allowedSum": 46.384468693230914,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 27.543376531665672,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 2.237994970926767,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.6870861776451704,
"scoringSum": 42.947590436573634,
"winRateDifference": 0.25992087862470364
}
game Id 2026_02_CAR_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.077965942888536,
21.98926105389224
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.6280930788532443
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.497049328910776,
61.21066695343234
]
week 2 2026_02_CIN_HOU
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.6670776327300562
expected Away Score 20.89219905638441
expected Home Margin 5.063512694079159
expected Home Score 25.955711750463568
expected Total 46.84791080684798 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.1697744592061667,
"allowedSum": 43.58403968419314,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 65.73336193782734,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 2.266290333504469,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.903484125701695,
"scoringSum": 49.102374845900734,
"winRateDifference": 0.2319517192719755
}
game Id 2026_02_CIN_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.97010080431123,
23.097126192469545
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.6620369260852479
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.491101994587197,
63.20471961910876
]
week 2 2026_02_CLE_TB
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.6404227139273444
expected Away Score 19.198207174731586
expected Home Margin 3.98085237686184
expected Home Score 23.179059551593426
expected Total 42.37726672632501 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.238675598089575,
"allowedSum": 43.10916303749157,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 45.26979057865992,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.027177868462673,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.265853466552244,
"scoringSum": 39.10475779504814,
"winRateDifference": -0.06053803319373491
}
game Id 2026_02_CLE_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-09-20 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.052761121528548,
22.014465875252228
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.6494342957111957
kickoff 2026-09-20T17:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.020457914064224,
58.734075538585785
]
week 2 First page Page 1 of 14 Next → How to read and verify this data JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.