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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 1–50 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["artifactSha256"] | d5b0aa30726c02b438c7b07dd1f48d7a444e2a12dbda18bae6c6868864f9765astring |
| $["asOf"] | 2026-09-05T01:00:00+00:00string |
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| $["backtest"]["calibration"]["intervalHalfWidths"]["margin"] | 18.033613498390388number |
| $["backtest"]["calibration"]["intervalHalfWidths"]["total"] | 16.35680881226078number |
| $["backtest"]["calibration"]["season"] | 2023number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][0]["candidate"] | meanstring |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][0]["loss"] | 10.993084023107077number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][0]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][1]["candidate"] | ridge:10string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][1]["loss"] | 10.187793184986864number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][1]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][2]["candidate"] | ridge:100string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][2]["loss"] | 10.183284138349036number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][2]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][3]["candidate"] | ridge:1000string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][3]["loss"] | 10.181696579945802number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["margin"][3]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][0]["candidate"] | elostring |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][0]["loss"] | 0.23001232083895884number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][0]["n"] | 1365number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][1]["candidate"] | logistic:0.05string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][1]["loss"] | 0.22312991059383713number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][1]["n"] | 1365number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][2]["candidate"] | logistic:0.5string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][2]["loss"] | 0.22312771871808376number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][2]["n"] | 1365number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][3]["candidate"] | logistic:5string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][3]["loss"] | 0.22311104425776657number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["probability"][3]["n"] | 1365number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][0]["candidate"] | meanstring |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][0]["loss"] | 11.260967775277772number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][0]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][1]["candidate"] | ridge:10string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][1]["loss"] | 10.920481916556982number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][1]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][2]["candidate"] | ridge:100string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][2]["loss"] | 10.919747574035105number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][2]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][3]["candidate"] | ridge:1000string |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][3]["loss"] | 10.914856898926711number |
| $["backtest"]["development"]["total"][3]["n"] | 1372number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["accuracy"] | 0.5413005272407733number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["brier"] | 0.25number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["lower"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["n"] | 569number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["observed"] | 0.5413005272407733number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["predicted"] | 0.5number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["calibration"][0]["upper"] | 0.6number |
| $["backtest"]["pooled"]["baselines"]["coin"]["expectedCalibrationError"] | 0.041300527240773266number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.