← All data & metrics Experimental · Frozen source
NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
Full JSON Download all CSV ↓ Metric formulas & meanings Players, teams & metrics All data points Field dictionary This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
272 matches · 181–200 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_13_CIN_CLE
away Team CIN
elo Probability 0.5270199048160494
expected Away Score 22.55835117224727
expected Home Margin -0.6911341899027654
expected Home Score 21.86721698234451
expected Total 44.42556815459178 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.4416633519986526,
"allowedSum": 44.312150791400654,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -36.2063384473804,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.14181396955462,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -6.583477321553268,
"scoringSum": 43.42238165004916,
"winRateDifference": 0.029976835526921652
}
game Id 2026_13_CIN_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.724747688293153,
17.342479308487622
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.4696103061998743
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.068759342331,
60.78237696685256
]
week 13 2026_13_DET_ATL
away Team DET
elo Probability 0.49510452523147663
expected Away Score 23.10691472598583
expected Home Margin -0.2272192554646004
expected Home Score 22.879695470521227
expected Total 45.98661019650706 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.1541449755591913,
"allowedSum": 46.987704875508506,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -58.40183299096202,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -0.2250148295862304,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -1.37915980514542,
"scoringSum": 46.013836419364225,
"winRateDifference": 0.15953094539066948
}
game Id 2026_13_DET_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.260832753854988,
17.806394242925787
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.48012869400277086
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.62980138424628,
62.34341900876784
]
week 13 2026_13_GB_NO
away Team GB
elo Probability 0.4888942607018113
expected Away Score 21.441002275324127
expected Home Margin 1.0464872117685229
expected Home Score 22.48748948709265
expected Total 43.928491762416776 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.7405524876091967,
"allowedSum": 44.43717453651461,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 11,
"eloDifference": -62.718327516882255,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.978612904039742,
"restDifference": -4,
"scoringDifference": 0.238060416430546,
"scoringSum": 42.77382361918349,
"winRateDifference": 0.18473048373972467
}
game Id 2026_13_GB_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.987126286621866,
19.08010071015891
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.5302289027448774
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.571682950155996,
60.28530057467756
]
week 13 2026_13_JAX_CHI
away Team JAX
elo Probability 0.5612831921130237
expected Away Score 23.83965813424485
expected Home Margin -0.20091258859248207
expected Home Score 23.63874554565237
expected Total 47.47840367989722 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.827855794761298,
"allowedSum": 42.35637248241296,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -12.200894368503896,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": -6.886033558131208,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": -4.058177763369908,
"scoringSum": 51.56721379179632,
"winRateDifference": -0.1594866479960571
}
game Id 2026_13_JAX_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.234526086982868,
17.832700909797907
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.4867847668894154
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.12159486763644,
63.835212492158
]
week 13 2026_13_LAC_TB
away Team LAC
elo Probability 0.5323810898089224
expected Away Score 20.11500275915669
expected Home Margin 1.530936507374633
expected Home Score 21.64593926653132
expected Total 41.76094202568801 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.6171531627913396,
"allowedSum": 41.73068547278981,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -32.46777779768013,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 0.39923160500858823,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 3.0163847677999236,
"scoringSum": 38.354226493800454,
"winRateDifference": -0.045187342978330214
}
game Id 2026_13_LAC_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.502676991015754,
19.56455000576502
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.5645985844511119
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.40413321342723,
58.11775083794879
]
week 13 2026_13_SF_NYG
away Team SF
elo Probability 0.4194173676263058
expected Away Score 23.12903845583298
expected Home Margin 0.10334587294643029
expected Home Score 23.232384328779407
expected Total 46.36142278461239 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -2.293383021276636,
"allowedSum": 46.61862597061196,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -111.48705198938887,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 3.7295604791106696,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.4361774578340345,
"scoringSum": 46.28198688032891,
"winRateDifference": -0.13661702581138024
}
game Id 2026_13_SF_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.930267625443957,
18.13695937133682
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.4927025511998307
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.004613972351606,
62.71823159687317
]
week 13 2026_13_WAS_TEN
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.4824283902674337
expected Away Score 23.275069036937783
expected Home Margin -1.5327057338284016
expected Home Score 21.742363303109386
expected Total 45.01743234004717 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.3977356512073413,
"allowedSum": 51.76721429660361,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -67.2150353989648,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -3.714191522697574,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.3164558714902377,
"scoringSum": 40.654700918217685,
"winRateDifference": -0.07725205205599328
}
game Id 2026_13_WAS_TEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.566319232218788,
16.500907764561987
]
home Team TEN
home Win Probability 0.4412003055994363
kickoff 2026-12-06T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.66062352778639,
61.37424115230795
]
week 13 2026_13_MIA_DEN
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.6802261998314272
expected Away Score 18.22305178593209
expected Home Margin 7.19690035834914
expected Home Score 25.419952144281226
expected Total 43.64300393021331 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.569332058147083,
"allowedSum": 44.09045977806112,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 76.1241909097755,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 9,
"marginDifference": 7.078601788322408,
"restDifference": 2,
"scoringDifference": 1.5092697301753295,
"scoringSum": 41.42474178470236,
"winRateDifference": 0.1661199439465348
}
game Id 2026_13_MIA_DEN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.836713140041248,
25.230513856739528
]
home Team DEN
home Win Probability 0.731725481712215
kickoff 2026-12-06T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.28619511795253,
59.99981274247409
]
week 13 2026_13_PHI_ARI
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.3866543893888987
expected Away Score 25.27947477941743
expected Home Margin -6.267715437892987
expected Home Score 19.01175934152445
expected Total 44.29123412094188 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 9.91510891742832,
"allowedSum": 49.20613675257463,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -135.15292674157968,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -10.627934979295874,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -0.712826061867549,
"scoringSum": 41.151538855124016,
"winRateDifference": -0.2676432650535818
}
game Id 2026_13_PHI_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.301328936283376,
11.7658980604974
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.29860836746599745
kickoff 2026-12-06T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.9344253086811,
60.64804293320266
]
week 13 2026_13_BUF_NE
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.542098841816754
expected Away Score 22.208924052161375
expected Home Margin 1.110853388577529
expected Home Score 23.319777440738907
expected Total 45.52870149290028 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.014077286727328,
"allowedSum": 40.70148427210961,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -25.67730503322855,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.5844580164489628,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": -3.429619270278362,
"scoringSum": 48.39551667792527,
"winRateDifference": 0.08619347539565891
}
game Id 2026_13_BUF_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.92276010981286,
19.144466886967916
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.5340339332443067
kickoff 2026-12-06T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.171892680639505,
61.88551030516106
]
week 13 2026_13_CAR_MIN
away Team CAR
elo Probability 0.6794931237278495
expected Away Score 17.868695533943562
expected Home Margin 6.974803389074777
expected Home Score 24.84349892301834
expected Total 42.7121944569619 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.499089708080948,
"allowedSum": 40.43628777843156,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": 75.53908587572846,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 6.232156145629004,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -0.2669335624519462,
"scoringSum": 40.99357069647652,
"winRateDifference": 0.2975644565739433
}
game Id 2026_13_CAR_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.05881010931561,
25.008416887465167
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.7252633753501635
kickoff 2026-12-06T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.355385644701123,
59.06900326922269
]
week 13 2026_13_HOU_PIT
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.5375143089363221
expected Away Score 22.59857838002555
expected Home Margin -0.916734634203836
expected Home Score 21.68184374582172
expected Total 44.280422125847274 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.450984469593326,
"allowedSum": 42.8652496945803,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -28.8833082610322,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 9,
"marginDifference": -6.709001605208997,
"restDifference": 2,
"scoringDifference": -4.258017135615674,
"scoringSum": 43.940873584583365,
"winRateDifference": -0.16571415385046062
}
game Id 2026_13_HOU_PIT
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-06 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.950348132594225,
17.116878864186553
]
home Team PIT
home Win Probability 0.47018750784503904
kickoff 2026-12-07T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.923613313586493,
60.637230938108054
]
week 13 2026_13_DAL_SEA
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.7058149730843348
expected Away Score 19.18747360210537
expected Home Margin 9.273461172382182
expected Home Score 28.460934774487555
expected Total 47.648408376592926 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -10.236703566691304,
"allowedSum": 45.2020720058454,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 11,
"eloDifference": 97.0281209823786,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 8,
"marginDifference": 13.314967977669692,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": 3.078264410978395,
"scoringSum": 50.710846484751485,
"winRateDifference": 0.3911742140023915
}
game Id 2026_13_DAL_SEA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-07 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-8.760152326008205,
27.307074670772572
]
home Team SEA
home Win Probability 0.7767027329213114
kickoff 2026-12-08T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.291599564332145,
64.0052171888537
]
week 13 2026_14_MIN_NE
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.5919987445017278
expected Away Score 19.50317242159663
expected Home Margin 3.532181739194457
expected Home Score 23.03535416079109
expected Total 42.538526582387725 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.3751044575158318,
"allowedSum": 35.31230252786645,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": 9.663714472772654,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": 0.7445256792953296,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.1196301368111676,
"scoringSum": 42.84626727083574,
"winRateDifference": 0.0040980727625462565
}
game Id 2026_14_MIN_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.501431759195931,
21.565795237584844
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.6320697329631555
kickoff 2026-12-11T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.181717770126944,
58.895335394648505
]
week 14 2026_14_ATL_CLE
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.5252204090894922
expected Away Score 21.56718662005607
expected Home Margin 0.041515529761287695
expected Home Score 21.60870214981736
expected Total 43.17588876987343 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.981536230273658,
"allowedSum": 43.85202366967566,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -37.46017931330198,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -1.916349912587797,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.897886142861456,
"scoringSum": 40.73679047135735,
"winRateDifference": -0.1571098321073931
}
game Id 2026_14_ATL_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.9920979686291,
18.075129028151675
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.5064643157740238
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.81907995761265,
59.53269758213421
]
week 14 2026_14_CHI_MIA
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.5446701469790471
expected Away Score 23.10311312966336
expected Home Margin -0.9159108211805348
expected Home Score 22.187202308482828
expected Total 45.29031543814619 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.237781779516972,
"allowedSum": 47.42201005669123,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -23.87702103446304,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.034563766466663,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.796781986949693,
"scoringSum": 43.712254041476726,
"winRateDifference": -0.02298243999589311
}
game Id 2026_14_CHI_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.949524319570923,
17.117702677209852
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.4645769593373624
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.933506625885407,
61.64712425040697
]
week 14 2026_14_DEN_NYJ
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.3805475729411727
expected Away Score 24.849247556143453
expected Home Margin -6.855695921525081
expected Home Score 17.99355163461837
expected Total 42.84279919076182 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 10.24339056786758,
"allowedSum": 48.76451828778161,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -139.6396009765083,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 14,
"marginDifference": -15.380315326181297,
"restDifference": 7,
"scoringDifference": -5.136924758313718,
"scoringSum": 37.79708675656397,
"winRateDifference": -0.3769168499458227
}
game Id 2026_14_DEN_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.88930941991547,
11.177917576865308
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.2743889239738197
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.485990378501043,
59.19960800302261
]
week 14 2026_14_HOU_WAS
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.4748687892290717
expected Away Score 24.050377900972887
expected Home Margin -2.817546369656402
expected Home Score 21.23283153131648
expected Total 45.28320943228937 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.47760671020465,
"allowedSum": 44.89187193519162,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -72.47768180664661,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -7.591473675450208,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.1138669652455597,
"scoringSum": 45.08502375495348,
"winRateDifference": -0.27072576371615814
}
game Id 2026_14_HOU_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.85115986804679,
15.216067128733986
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.4057308410026175
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.926400620028588,
61.64001824455015
]
week 14 2026_14_IND_PHI
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.6828854122546317
expected Away Score 20.06172715121967
expected Home Margin 4.572943848964549
expected Home Score 24.634671000184223
expected Total 44.6963981514039 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.310295296897124,
"allowedSum": 46.60132313204343,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 14,
"eloDifference": 78.25264590798656,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 4.999365667998215,
"restDifference": -7,
"scoringDifference": -2.310929628898908,
"scoringSum": 44.175294545890466,
"winRateDifference": 0.1981172283413768
}
game Id 2026_14_IND_PHI
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.46066964942584,
22.606557347354936
]
home Team PHI
home Win Probability 0.6600003685475261
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.339589339143117,
61.05320696366468
]
week 14 2026_14_NO_CAR
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.5805444278625094
expected Away Score 21.513723752427826
expected Home Margin 0.7650572029990155
expected Home Score 22.278780955426843
expected Total 43.79250470785467 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.119377718803552,
"allowedSum": 43.81599976770896,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 1.4597971887337735,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -3.995067607146332,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.8756898883427837,
"scoringSum": 42.13619414727125,
"winRateDifference": -0.16073059478178803
}
game Id 2026_14_NO_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-13 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.26855629539137,
18.798670701389405
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.53713031909591
kickoff 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.435695895593888,
60.14931352011545
]
week 14 ← Previous Page 10 of 14 Next → How to read and verify this data JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Original observations, research and definitions are provided in full. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.