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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 4951–5000 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -29.048664704249404number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 0number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 4.156124686151257number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.713250417483597number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 51.91214113768264number |
| $["games"][80]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.017233665700596368number |
| $["games"][80]["gameId"] | 2026_06_HOU_JAXstring |
| $["games"][80]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][80]["gameday"] | 2026-10-18string |
| $["games"][80]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.833739332894822number |
| $["games"][80]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.233487663885953number |
| $["games"][80]["homeTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][80]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5273539215466224number |
| $["games"][80]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-18T13:30:00Zstring |
| $["games"][80]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][80]["neutral"] | trueboolean |
| $["games"][80]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.805334884214965number |
| $["games"][80]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.518952508736525number |
| $["games"][80]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][81]["awayTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][81]["eloProbability"] | 0.4680129651568559number |
| $["games"][81]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.022766387514697number |
| $["games"][81]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -2.171661257869005number |
| $["games"][81]["expectedHomeScore"] | 20.851105129645692number |
| $["games"][81]["expectedTotal"] | 43.87387151716039number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.8567650632454509number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.727252502647445number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -77.25726553661525number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.30719551363593number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -6.163960576881379number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.00286490537727number |
| $["games"][81]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.007843207355800352number |
| $["games"][81]["gameId"] | 2026_06_BAL_CLEstring |
| $["games"][81]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][81]["gameday"] | 2026-10-18string |
| $["games"][81]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -20.205274756259392number |
| $["games"][81]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 15.861952240521385number |
| $["games"][81]["homeTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][81]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4187969517984058number |
| $["games"][81]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-18T17:00:00Zstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.