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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5001–5050 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][81]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][81]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][81]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.517062704899608number |
| $["games"][81]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.23068032942117number |
| $["games"][81]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][82]["awayTeam"] | CARstring |
| $["games"][82]["eloProbability"] | 0.7128606378124056number |
| $["games"][82]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.731594450834436number |
| $["games"][82]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.290475700661423number |
| $["games"][82]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.02207015149586number |
| $["games"][82]["expectedTotal"] | 42.753664602330296number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.8221748256831023number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.113202660829415number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 102.96476138928824number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 4.124105154714652number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -7number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.30193032903154915number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.56243458796001number |
| $["games"][82]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.10523984975971272number |
| $["games"][82]["gameId"] | 2026_06_CAR_PHIstring |
| $["games"][82]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][82]["gameday"] | 2026-10-18string |
| $["games"][82]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.743137797728965number |
| $["games"][82]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.324089199051812number |
| $["games"][82]["homeTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][82]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6945367076286642number |
| $["games"][82]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-18T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][82]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][82]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][82]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.396855790069516number |
| $["games"][82]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.11047341459108number |
| $["games"][82]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][83]["awayTeam"] | CHIstring |
| $["games"][83]["eloProbability"] | 0.5455937525511654number |
| $["games"][83]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.50854703925475number |
| $["games"][83]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.929515815729736number |
| $["games"][83]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.438062854984487number |
| $["games"][83]["expectedTotal"] | 45.94660989423924number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 0.32466581138752915number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 45.50889408856179number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -23.229961999152465number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][83]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.