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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5101–5150 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][84]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][85]["awayTeam"] | NYJstring |
| $["games"][85]["eloProbability"] | 0.7345572279014241number |
| $["games"][85]["expectedAwayScore"] | 15.83207206226526number |
| $["games"][85]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 11.879408598069038number |
| $["games"][85]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.711480660334296number |
| $["games"][85]["expectedTotal"] | 43.54355272259956number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -11.160250935133456number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.847657920515736number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 121.8218929188788number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 17.313118639831778number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.152867704698327number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 38.81302970294858number |
| $["games"][85]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.4073762587659598number |
| $["games"][85]["gameId"] | 2026_06_NYJ_NEstring |
| $["games"][85]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][85]["gameday"] | 2026-10-18string |
| $["games"][85]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -6.15420490032135number |
| $["games"][85]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 29.913022096459425number |
| $["games"][85]["homeTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][85]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.8381124622368038number |
| $["games"][85]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-18T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][85]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][85]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][85]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.186743910338777number |
| $["games"][85]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.90036153486034number |
| $["games"][85]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][86]["awayTeam"] | PITstring |
| $["games"][86]["eloProbability"] | 0.5390833353156965number |
| $["games"][86]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.598857715610773number |
| $["games"][86]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 2.161195880341995number |
| $["games"][86]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.760053595952765number |
| $["games"][86]["expectedTotal"] | 43.35891131156354number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.48419776429623695number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 44.83203639987738number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -27.786601545515623number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 1.3280751706125815number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][86]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.843877406316345number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.