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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5351–5400 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][92]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.649469966998818number |
| $["games"][92]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-20T00:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][92]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][92]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][92]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.206887606814327number |
| $["games"][92]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.92050523133589number |
| $["games"][92]["week"] | 6number |
| $["games"][93]["awayTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][93]["eloProbability"] | 0.5295688415662477number |
| $["games"][93]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.343889384236515number |
| $["games"][93]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.599084245381253number |
| $["games"][93]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.94297362961777number |
| $["games"][93]["expectedTotal"] | 45.28686301385429number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.248410645895987number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 40.93581763127827number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -34.42946181768298number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -2.9768413355062258number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.2715693103897543number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.23746671803666number |
| $["games"][93]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.17359691277077866number |
| $["games"][93]["gameId"] | 2026_07_NE_CHIstring |
| $["games"][93]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][93]["gameday"] | 2026-10-22string |
| $["games"][93]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.434529253009135number |
| $["games"][93]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.63269774377164number |
| $["games"][93]["homeTeam"] | CHIstring |
| $["games"][93]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.527048934751058number |
| $["games"][93]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-23T00:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][93]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][93]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][93]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.930054201593503number |
| $["games"][93]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.64367182611507number |
| $["games"][93]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][94]["awayTeam"] | PITstring |
| $["games"][94]["eloProbability"] | 0.40809069974835743number |
| $["games"][94]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.783765211840507number |
| $["games"][94]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.32640152224470054number |
| $["games"][94]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.457363689595805number |
| $["games"][94]["expectedTotal"] | 43.24112890143631number |
| $["games"][94]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -2.3098060576341055number |
| $["games"][94]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.00642810653952number |
| $["games"][94]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][94]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][94]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -64.59938653127301number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.