Experimental · Frozen source

NFL game forecasts & backtests

272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.

Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.

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272 matches · 201–220 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.

2026_14_TB_BAL

away Team: TB
elo Probability: 0.6226332552574735
expected Away Score: 19.677605225841255
expected Home Margin: 5.884503682407921
expected Home Score: 25.56210890824918
expected Total: 45.239714134090434
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.38191053484412407, "allowedSum": 43.965928100737024, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 31.987474957955328, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": 4.280017645173258, "restDifference": 7, "scoringDifference": 3.898107110329136, "scoringSum": 45.26871837192952, "winRateDifference": 0.06838124054953526 }
game Id: 2026_14_TB_BAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -12.149109815982468, 23.91811718079831 ]
home Team: BAL
home Win Probability: 0.6857124847752949
kickoff: 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.882905321829657, 61.596522946351215 ]
week: 14

2026_14_TEN_DET

away Team: TEN
elo Probability: 0.7475815907393254
expected Away Score: 18.880991009197864
expected Home Margin: 8.417164210693688
expected Home Score: 27.298155219891555
expected Total: 46.17914622908942
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -3.011550048371628, "allowedSum": 51.15339989943932, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 133.61502912466767, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 7.038925637262722, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 4.0273755888911005, "scoringSum": 43.36562063561854, "winRateDifference": 0.1435818187438212 }
game Id: 2026_14_TEN_DET
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -9.6164492876967, 26.450777709084075 ]
home Team: DET
home Win Probability: 0.7656981466534188
kickoff: 2026-12-13T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.82233741682864, 62.5359550413502 ]
week: 14

2026_14_LAC_LV

away Team: LAC
elo Probability: 0.4237682869553891
expected Away Score: 21.008141816081867
expected Home Margin: -2.1064015830019156
expected Home Score: 18.90174023307995
expected Total: 39.909882049161816
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 4.10057345187856, "allowedSum": 43.21410576187703, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -108.38748131551642, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": -5.683746741525814, "restDifference": 7, "scoringDifference": -1.583173289647256, "scoringSum": 33.75466843635328, "winRateDifference": -0.12903690425861392 }
game Id: 2026_14_LAC_LV
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -20.140015081392303, 15.927211915388472 ]
home Team: LV
home Win Probability: 0.4250261727486237
kickoff: 2026-12-13T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 23.553073236901035, 56.26669086142259 ]
week: 14

2026_14_KC_CIN

away Team: KC
elo Probability: 0.5349686871989849
expected Away Score: 20.63824254016243
expected Home Margin: 2.764162225748677
expected Home Score: 23.402404765911108
expected Total: 44.04064730607354
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.987135601736135, "allowedSum": 43.76667854166317, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -30.661533754871694, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 4.027469406217982, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": 7.01460500795411, "scoringSum": 42.99125396364832, "winRateDifference": 0.16758497368118325 }
game Id: 2026_14_KC_CIN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.26945127264171, 20.797775724139065 ]
home Team: CIN
home Win Probability: 0.5963030323971813
kickoff: 2026-12-13T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.68383849381276, 60.39745611833432 ]
week: 14

2026_14_LA_SF

away Team: LAR
elo Probability: 0.5568873562844757
expected Away Score: 24.48131753651574
expected Home Margin: -1.0508819480932663
expected Home Score: 23.430435588422476
expected Total: 47.911753124938215
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.3001067810522571, "allowedSum": 48.611902210836334, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -15.29871385640331, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -5.2391334142540265, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": -4.939026633201767, "scoringSum": 49.78483605569664, "winRateDifference": -0.001736688118697538 }
game Id: 2026_14_LA_SF
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.084495446483658, 16.98273155029712 ]
home Team: SF
home Win Probability: 0.4556218556008125
kickoff: 2026-12-13T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.554944312677435, 64.268561937199 ]
week: 14

2026_14_NYG_SEA

away Team: NYG
elo Probability: 0.7747484577787791
expected Away Score: 18.339968934321035
expected Home Margin: 10.063479715539652
expected Home Score: 28.403448649860692
expected Total: 46.74341758418173
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -4.679937255090611, "allowedSum": 39.64530569424471, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 159.59717890911975, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": 7.715410533874075, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": 3.035473278783467, "scoringSum": 50.753637616946406, "winRateDifference": 0.37948117581085994 }
game Id: 2026_14_NYG_SEA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -7.970133782850734, 28.09709321393004 ]
home Team: SEA
home Win Probability: 0.8021907920780792
kickoff: 2026-12-13T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.386608771920947, 63.10022639644251 ]
week: 14

2026_14_BUF_GB

away Team: BUF
elo Probability: 0.5077395574616095
expected Away Score: 24.234232335060995
expected Home Margin: -1.918817404228807
expected Home Score: 22.31541493083219
expected Total: 46.549647265893185
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.7310827326434328, "allowedSum": 46.44664429148037, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -49.62157505358118, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -6.37576910536878, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -4.644686372725346, "scoringSum": 47.180449575478285, "winRateDifference": -0.2394689428987673 }
game Id: 2026_14_BUF_GB
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-13
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.952430902619195, 16.11479609416158 ]
home Team: GB
home Win Probability: 0.431923422682386
kickoff: 2026-12-14T01:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.192838453632405, 62.906456078153965 ]
week: 14

2026_14_PIT_JAX

away Team: PIT
elo Probability: 0.5782646331324193
expected Away Score: 19.718133625629335
expected Home Margin: 6.566342930583152
expected Home Score: 26.28447655621249
expected Total: 46.002610181841824
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -2.893858738260981, "allowedSum": 42.42237542591264, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 8, "eloDifference": -0.1653564432172061, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 8, "marginDifference": 10.865126291360257, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 7.9712675530992705, "scoringSum": 47.654124002066965, "winRateDifference": 0.14848048814986425 }
game Id: 2026_14_PIT_JAX
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-14
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -11.467270567807237, 24.59995642897354 ]
home Team: JAX
home Win Probability: 0.708805757802373
kickoff: 2026-12-15T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.645801369581044, 62.359418994102604 ]
week: 14

2026_15_SF_LAC

away Team: SF
elo Probability: 0.5576996875372495
expected Away Score: 20.89710527056935
expected Home Margin: 1.4779632078433045
expected Home Score: 22.375068478412658
expected Total: 43.272173748982006
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -4.899238340945061, "allowedSum": 44.01277065094353, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 4, "eloDifference": -14.726738003023684, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 4, "marginDifference": 0.14525449269788893, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -4.75398384824717, "scoringSum": 40.09182557424771, "winRateDifference": -0.11657109311076136 }
game Id: 2026_15_SF_LAC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-17
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.55565029054708, 19.511576706233697 ]
home Team: LAC
home Win Probability: 0.5558826803704565
kickoff: 2026-12-18T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.915364936721225, 59.628982561242786 ]
week: 15

2026_15_SEA_PHI

away Team: SEA
elo Probability: 0.5392174000844151
expected Away Score: 23.108106374307315
expected Home Margin: -1.486905052261441
expected Home Score: 21.621201322045874
expected Total: 44.72930769635319
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.1628296979961057, "allowedSum": 37.12819813715021, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": -27.69286912817006, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": -8.125202687365258, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -5.9623729893691575, "scoringSum": 47.82673790636072, "winRateDifference": -0.34165574965243417 }
game Id: 2026_15_SEA_PHI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-19
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.52051855065183, 16.546708446128946 ]
home Team: PHI
home Win Probability: 0.4604113482846147
kickoff: 2026-12-19T22:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.37249888409241, 61.08611650861397 ]
week: 15

2026_15_CHI_BUF

away Team: CHI
elo Probability: 0.6598459540806506
expected Away Score: 21.24139504813928
expected Home Margin: 5.067627745802735
expected Home Score: 26.309022793942013
expected Total: 47.550417842081295
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.23433335916865872, "allowedSum": 44.9498949180056, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": 60.10676685091153, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": 2.392383319057263, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 2.158049959888608, "scoringSum": 49.66708598831502, "winRateDifference": 0.08740343737511974 }
game Id: 2026_15_CHI_BUF
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-19
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -12.965985752587653, 23.101241244193123 ]
home Team: BUF
home Win Probability: 0.6665749670899169
kickoff: 2026-12-20T01:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.19360902982051, 63.907226654342075 ]
week: 15

2026_15_ATL_WAS

away Team: ATL
elo Probability: 0.567231443403341
expected Away Score: 22.337398192387887
expected Home Margin: 0.5066335626499585
expected Home Score: 22.844031755037847
expected Total: 45.181429947425734
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.767959372723478, "allowedSum": 47.60151927267279, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -7.99816073474085, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -3.0997192849789172, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -1.3317599122554429, "scoringSum": 43.30291670196336, "winRateDifference": -0.2258607120784974 }
game Id: 2026_15_ATL_WAS
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -17.526979935740428, 18.540247061040347 ]
home Team: WAS
home Win Probability: 0.5240170883785479
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.824621135164954, 61.538238759686514 ]
week: 15

2026_15_BAL_PIT

away Team: BAL
elo Probability: 0.5725892879872794
expected Away Score: 22.565656821628224
expected Home Margin: -0.217983732251934
expected Home Score: 22.347673089376286
expected Total: 44.91332991100451
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.866108299140361, "allowedSum": 44.45012586503326, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -4.200873412439705, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": -5.60809281578584, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": -4.741984516645481, "scoringSum": 44.42484096561317, "winRateDifference": 0.028417522538792872 }
game Id: 2026_15_BAL_PIT
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.25159723064232, 17.815629766138454 ]
home Team: PIT
home Win Probability: 0.4915733897100723
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.55652109874373, 61.27013872326529 ]
week: 15

2026_15_CIN_CAR

away Team: CIN
elo Probability: 0.5412238883325692
expected Away Score: 23.25348338813938
expected Home Margin: -0.5125934051836487
expected Home Score: 22.74088998295573
expected Total: 45.99437337109511
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.09078167155660566, "allowedSum": 46.84459581495591, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -26.289535665744097, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -4.46345902789359, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -4.3726773563369825, "scoringSum": 45.63318161526544, "winRateDifference": -0.07283421099038889 }
game Id: 2026_15_CIN_CAR
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.546206903574035, 17.52102009320674 ]
home Team: CAR
home Win Probability: 0.47741033551950807
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.637564558834327, 62.35118218335589 ]
week: 15

2026_15_CLE_NYG

away Team: CLE
elo Probability: 0.5515911624665664
expected Away Score: 20.181528057659392
expected Home Margin: 3.471997822371656
expected Home Score: 23.653525880031047
expected Total: 43.83505393769044
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.2273777549666605, "allowedSum": 43.09786519436866, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -19.02274561002514, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 4.212252249866865, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 5.439630004833525, "scoringSum": 42.27853433332942, "winRateDifference": -0.03539662291602358 }
game Id: 2026_15_CLE_NYG
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.561615676018732, 21.505611320762043 ]
home Team: NYG
home Win Probability: 0.6235915456771014
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.47824512542966, 60.19186274995122 ]
week: 15

2026_15_IND_TEN

away Team: IND
elo Probability: 0.4750062336385635
expected Away Score: 24.182586043428113
expected Home Margin: -1.8463115957467384
expected Home Score: 22.336274447681372
expected Total: 46.518860491109486
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.1266657594351983, "allowedSum": 54.038284188375755, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -72.38193508334166, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -3.7006553234661617, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.573989564030967, "scoringSum": 42.91223461075841, "winRateDifference": 0.04968549307187703 }
game Id: 2026_15_IND_TEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.879925094137125, 16.18730190264365 ]
home Team: TEN
home Win Probability: 0.4190714247101896
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.162051678848705, 62.875669303370266 ]
week: 15

2026_15_JAX_HOU

away Team: JAX
elo Probability: 0.6186502146975127
expected Away Score: 22.64369913260372
expected Home Margin: 1.953821349487682
expected Home Score: 24.597520482091404
expected Total: 47.241219614695126
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.442874268667655, "allowedSum": 39.97139095631931, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": 29.048664704249404, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -4.156124686151257, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": -3.713250417483597, "scoringSum": 51.91214113768264, "winRateDifference": 0.017233665700596368 }
game Id: 2026_15_JAX_HOU
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.079792148902705, 19.98743484787807 ]
home Team: HOU
home Win Probability: 0.5630266059050334
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.884410802434346, 63.598028426955906 ]
week: 15

2026_15_MIA_GB

away Team: MIA
elo Probability: 0.6258397690904265
expected Away Score: 20.532207866424727
expected Home Margin: 3.585404735560674
expected Home Score: 24.1176126019854
expected Total: 44.64982046841013
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.7410324060421978, "allowedSum": 48.918759430166006, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 34.362212831793386, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 2.0511779801551455, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 1.3101455741129548, "scoringSum": 41.22561762863998, "winRateDifference": -0.12908306552775445 }
game Id: 2026_15_MIA_GB
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.448208762829712, 21.61901823395106 ]
home Team: GB
home Win Probability: 0.6297186775964948
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.293011656149343, 61.00662928067091 ]
week: 15

2026_15_NO_TB

away Team: NO
elo Probability: 0.6291371302606455
expected Away Score: 20.597106917017207
expected Home Margin: 2.327861093358131
expected Home Score: 22.924968010375338
expected Total: 43.522074927392545
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.8256082933378688, "allowedSum": 42.52223034224328, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 36.81278498575739, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -2.6462446803446893, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -0.8206363870068252, "scoringSum": 42.1912476486072, "winRateDifference": -0.1184575814582124 }
game Id: 2026_15_NO_TB
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.705752405032255, 20.36147459174852 ]
home Team: TB
home Win Probability: 0.5931224277286978
kickoff: 2026-12-20T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.165266115131764, 59.878883739653325 ]
week: 15

2026_15_NYJ_ARI

away Team: NYJ
elo Probability: 0.5847034416022227
expected Away Score: 20.50600806045428
expected Home Margin: 3.931973573799382
expected Home Score: 24.437981634253664
expected Total: 44.943989694707945
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.05666840717687904, "allowedSum": 59.06457726282607, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 4.430927218086254, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 14, "marginDifference": 3.832606990326221, "restDifference": 7, "scoringDifference": 3.8892753975031056, "scoringSum": 36.54943739575336, "winRateDifference": -0.05668968586439893 }
game Id: 2026_15_NYJ_ARI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.101639924591003, 21.96558707218977 ]
home Team: ARI
home Win Probability: 0.622491505182952
kickoff: 2026-12-20T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.587180882447164, 61.300798506968725 ]
week: 15

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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316

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