Loading DraftADynasty…
Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5501–5550 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][97]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 7number |
| $["games"][97]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.879793520382403number |
| $["games"][97]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.60643065440698number |
| $["games"][97]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.3904418351556074number |
| $["games"][97]["gameId"] | 2026_07_IND_MINstring |
| $["games"][97]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][97]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][97]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.008931037879185number |
| $["games"][97]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 25.058295958901592number |
| $["games"][97]["homeTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][97]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7072434695879954number |
| $["games"][97]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-25T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][97]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][97]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][97]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.11242455966061number |
| $["games"][97]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.82604218418217number |
| $["games"][97]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][98]["awayTeam"] | MIAstring |
| $["games"][98]["eloProbability"] | 0.4877477930544568number |
| $["games"][98]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.845845698793305number |
| $["games"][98]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -4.755498425759924number |
| $["games"][98]["expectedHomeScore"] | 19.09034727303338number |
| $["games"][98]["expectedTotal"] | 42.936192971826685number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.674058509720496number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 54.333850345928695number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -63.515410066732784number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -8.301713537858888number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -7number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.627655028138389number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 36.28781702638864number |
| $["games"][98]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.21079690599928796number |
| $["games"][98]["gameId"] | 2026_07_MIA_NYJstring |
| $["games"][98]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][98]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][98]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -22.789111924150312number |
| $["games"][98]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 13.278115072630465number |
| $["games"][98]["homeTeam"] | NYJstring |
| $["games"][98]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.3530967150658203number |
| $["games"][98]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-25T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][98]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][98]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][98]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.579384159565905number |
| $["games"][98]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.293001784087465number |
| $["games"][98]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][99]["awayTeam"] | NYGstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.