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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5551–5600 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][99]["eloProbability"] | 0.7335914557482789number |
| $["games"][99]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.642589011640617number |
| $["games"][99]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.783248734411165number |
| $["games"][99]["expectedHomeScore"] | 26.425837746051783number |
| $["games"][99]["expectedTotal"] | 46.0684267576924number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -1.9554888621741744number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.36975408716114number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 120.96244599523288number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 2.195852053192223number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.24036319101804793number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.95852752918099number |
| $["games"][99]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.23737150666107745number |
| $["games"][99]["gameId"] | 2026_07_NYG_HOUstring |
| $["games"][99]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][99]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][99]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.250364763979222number |
| $["games"][99]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 24.81686223280155number |
| $["games"][99]["homeTeam"] | HOUstring |
| $["games"][99]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7204570126127223number |
| $["games"][99]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-25T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][99]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][99]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][99]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.71161794543162number |
| $["games"][99]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.42523556995318number |
| $["games"][99]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][100]["awayTeam"] | SFstring |
| $["games"][100]["eloProbability"] | 0.4999940606745054number |
| $["games"][100]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.38661524404348number |
| $["games"][100]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.163706771677116number |
| $["games"][100]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.550322015720592number |
| $["games"][100]["expectedTotal"] | 45.93693725976407number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -1.5392245459696383number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.37278444591895number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -55.00412706606176number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 1.4336581418316012number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 1number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.10556640413803464number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.74024301835683number |
| $["games"][100]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.055889429212036434number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.