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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5601–5650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][100]["gameId"] | 2026_07_SF_ATLstring |
| $["games"][100]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][100]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][100]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.86990672671327number |
| $["games"][100]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.197320270067504number |
| $["games"][100]["homeTeam"] | ATLstring |
| $["games"][100]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5274315672598434number |
| $["games"][100]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-25T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][100]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][100]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][100]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.58012844750329number |
| $["games"][100]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.29374607202485number |
| $["games"][100]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][101]["awayTeam"] | TBstring |
| $["games"][101]["eloProbability"] | 0.5282442238201682number |
| $["games"][101]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.648172747142716number |
| $["games"][101]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.6097082961438769number |
| $["games"][101]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.257881043286595number |
| $["games"][101]["expectedTotal"] | 43.90605379042931number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.2937694254656833number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 45.64160806104683number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -35.352987797023616number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -1.3488229268016427number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.05505350133595854number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.315557760264426number |
| $["games"][101]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.04227301332357564number |
| $["games"][101]["gameId"] | 2026_07_TB_CARstring |
| $["games"][101]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][101]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][101]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.42390520224651number |
| $["games"][101]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.643321794534263number |
| $["games"][101]["homeTeam"] | CARstring |
| $["games"][101]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5223135520684741number |
| $["games"][101]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-25T17:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][101]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][101]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][101]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.54924497816853number |
| $["games"][101]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.26286260269009number |
| $["games"][101]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][102]["awayTeam"] | DENstring |
| $["games"][102]["eloProbability"] | 0.3865782884989143number |
| $["games"][102]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.562414026008096number |
| $["games"][102]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -6.717977626942151number |
| $["games"][102]["expectedHomeScore"] | 18.844436399065945number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.