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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5751–5800 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 73.7065610968425number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 11.813318220404302number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 8.906230970017834number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.88287992571205number |
| $["games"][105]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.5416463621029413number |
| $["games"][105]["gameId"] | 2026_07_KC_SEAstring |
| $["games"][105]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][105]["gameday"] | 2026-10-25string |
| $["games"][105]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -7.95825140109944number |
| $["games"][105]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 28.108975595681336number |
| $["games"][105]["homeTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][105]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7959827194988827number |
| $["games"][105]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-26T00:20:00Zstring |
| $["games"][105]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][105]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][105]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.49028115576978number |
| $["games"][105]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.20389878029134number |
| $["games"][105]["week"] | 7number |
| $["games"][106]["awayTeam"] | DALstring |
| $["games"][106]["eloProbability"] | 0.6716663161165384number |
| $["games"][106]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.10790310278715number |
| $["games"][106]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.479443846516432number |
| $["games"][106]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.587346949303583number |
| $["games"][106]["expectedTotal"] | 45.695250052090735number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -8.073873868695198number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.36490170384151number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 8number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 69.33525185420854number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 8number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 5.189765290304434number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.8841085783907623number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.74847349538233number |
| $["games"][106]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.049518464349957325number |
| $["games"][106]["gameId"] | 2026_07_DAL_PHIstring |
| $["games"][106]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][106]["gameday"] | 2026-10-26string |
| $["games"][106]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.554169651873956number |
| $["games"][106]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.51305734490682number |
| $["games"][106]["homeTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][106]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6801804866313597number |
| $["games"][106]["kickoff"] | 2026-10-27T00:15:00Zstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.