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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 5901–5950 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][109]["week"] | 8number |
| $["games"][110]["awayTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][110]["eloProbability"] | 0.6381260252588074number |
| $["games"][110]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.27087865622968number |
| $["games"][110]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.969619052341001number |
| $["games"][110]["expectedHomeScore"] | 26.240497708570683number |
| $["games"][110]["expectedTotal"] | 47.51137636480036number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 0.5657719964720194number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 44.14978956236491number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 43.53964262675072number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.7633832365004696number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 7number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.3291552329724894number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 50.49598071523114number |
| $["games"][110]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.10481480006771976number |
| $["games"][110]["gameId"] | 2026_08_BAL_BUFstring |
| $["games"][110]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][110]["gameday"] | 2026-11-01string |
| $["games"][110]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -13.063994446049389number |
| $["games"][110]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.00323255073139number |
| $["games"][110]["homeTeam"] | BUFstring |
| $["games"][110]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6514986431008758number |
| $["games"][110]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-01T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][110]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][110]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][110]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.154567552539586number |
| $["games"][110]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.86818517706114number |
| $["games"][110]["week"] | 8number |
| $["games"][111]["awayTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][111]["eloProbability"] | 0.6763727303123144number |
| $["games"][111]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.88775610078727number |
| $["games"][111]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.330602641642069number |
| $["games"][111]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.218358742429334number |
| $["games"][111]["expectedTotal"] | 42.10611484321661number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.722873362385812number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.59336080178781number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 73.05639212417555number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -0.3008973021499086number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][111]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.4219760602358988number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.