Experimental · Frozen source

NFL game forecasts & backtests

272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.

Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC

Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.

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272 matches · 221–240 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.

2026_15_DAL_LA

away Team: DAL
elo Probability: 0.6651358851712043
expected Away Score: 21.932392688676178
expected Home Margin: 5.302529192700481
expected Home Score: 27.23492188137666
expected Total: 49.16731457005284
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -3.5634900713763145, "allowedSum": 51.87528550116039, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 13, "eloDifference": 64.21670791905103, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 7.109130378938974, "restDifference": -6, "scoringDifference": 3.5456403075626604, "scoringSum": 51.17822238133574, "winRateDifference": 0.15004675212160934 }
game Id: 2026_15_DAL_LA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -12.731084305689906, 23.33614269109087 ]
home Team: LAR
home Win Probability: 0.672713734165883
kickoff: 2026-12-20T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 32.81050575779206, 65.52412338231362 ]
week: 15

2026_15_DEN_LV

away Team: DEN
elo Probability: 0.3752054684779881
expected Away Score: 23.64888295584115
expected Home Margin: -5.7969107145367715
expected Home Score: 17.851972241304377
expected Total: 41.500855197145526
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 4.3967757469207776, "allowedSum": 42.917903466834815, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -143.58722412694328, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -9.778033931006611, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -5.381258184085834, "scoringSum": 37.55275333079186, "winRateDifference": -0.31277966847306066 }
game Id: 2026_15_DEN_LV
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -23.83052421292716, 12.236702783853616 ]
home Team: LV
home Win Probability: 0.3144711373195029
kickoff: 2026-12-20T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.144046384884746, 57.85766400940631 ]
week: 15

2026_15_DET_MIN

away Team: DET
elo Probability: 0.5638256410383227
expected Away Score: 20.20756635554408
expected Home Margin: 3.5932107739453203
expected Home Score: 23.800777129489404
expected Total: 44.008343485033485
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -7.102325890358539, "allowedSum": 41.03952396070916, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -10.406123646899232, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 10, "marginDifference": 3.769146345116006, "restDifference": 3, "scoringDifference": -3.333179545242537, "scoringSum": 44.05981667926711, "winRateDifference": 0.19717452333990915 }
game Id: 2026_15_DET_MIN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-20
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.440402724445068, 21.626824272335707 ]
home Team: MIN
home Win Probability: 0.6098364093016881
kickoff: 2026-12-21T01:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.651534672772705, 60.365152297294266 ]
week: 15

2026_15_NE_KC

away Team: NE
elo Probability: 0.5384179809981116
expected Away Score: 21.595848704336696
expected Home Margin: -1.8011935877420586
expected Home Score: 19.79465511659464
expected Total: 41.390503820931336
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 2.046067977272376, "allowedSum": 38.733474962654654, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 11, "eloDifference": -28.25173092788532, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 8, "marginDifference": -6.540692203248725, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": -4.494624225976349, "scoringSum": 40.471273181670554, "winRateDifference": -0.3964132920272839 }
game Id: 2026_15_NE_KC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-21
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -19.834807086132447, 16.23241991064833 ]
home Team: KC
home Win Probability: 0.46397515639222814
kickoff: 2026-12-22T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.033695008670556, 57.74731263319212 ]
week: 15

2026_16_HOU_PHI

away Team: HOU
elo Probability: 0.5937746659187656
expected Away Score: 21.306649763716745
expected Home Margin: 1.8207787224581984
expected Home Score: 23.127428486174946
expected Total: 44.43407824989169
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.5616186949203303, "allowedSum": 39.85264653006664, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 4, "eloDifference": 10.941863785716803, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 5, "marginDifference": -2.6056442066834062, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": -3.1672629016037384, "scoringSum": 45.0316278185953, "winRateDifference": -0.19954608050265168 }
game Id: 2026_16_HOU_PHI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-24
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.21283477593219, 19.854392220848585 ]
home Team: PHI
home Win Probability: 0.5721639620005735
kickoff: 2026-12-25T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.07726943763091, 60.79088706215247 ]
week: 16

2026_16_GB_CHI

away Team: GB
elo Probability: 0.5637137037349877
expected Away Score: 21.200617892462994
expected Home Margin: 3.659008859065995
expected Home Score: 24.859626751528985
expected Total: 46.06024464399198
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -1.496749373474774, "allowedSum": 46.68097765064903, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 5, "eloDifference": -10.485191797330344, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": 3.9833857863115174, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": 2.486636412836738, "scoringSum": 45.02239961558968, "winRateDifference": 0.15206550552364756 }
game Id: 2026_16_GB_CHI
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-25
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.374604639324392, 21.692622357456383 ]
home Team: CHI
home Win Probability: 0.6142052998177906
kickoff: 2026-12-25T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.7034358317312, 62.41705345625276 ]
week: 16

2026_16_BUF_DEN

away Team: BUF
elo Probability: 0.5674272367989893
expected Away Score: 22.177150650463027
expected Home Margin: 1.33751953815052
expected Home Score: 23.514670188613543
expected Total: 45.69182083907657
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -3.0972169194614523, "allowedSum": 41.618344639375486, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": -7.859596975599061, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 5, "marginDifference": -1.3483452972015175, "restDifference": -1, "scoringDifference": -4.445562216662971, "scoringSum": 47.37957373154066, "winRateDifference": 0.055734066575521934 }
game Id: 2026_16_BUF_DEN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-25
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.696093960239867, 19.371133036540908 ]
home Team: DEN
home Win Probability: 0.5417712641216045
kickoff: 2026-12-25T21:30:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 29.33501202681579, 62.04862965133735 ]
week: 16

2026_16_LA_SEA

away Team: LAR
elo Probability: 0.6237470184942966
expected Away Score: 21.52573170997078
expected Home Margin: 5.84543207905525
expected Home Score: 27.37116378902603
expected Total: 48.89689549899681
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -6.6732134953149895, "allowedSum": 41.63858193446909, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 5, "eloDifference": 32.811413063327564, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": 6.205837598730718, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": -0.4673758965842651, "scoringSum": 54.25648679231414, "winRateDifference": 0.24112746188078216 }
game Id: 2026_16_LA_SEA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-25
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -12.188181419335136, 23.87904557744564 ]
home Team: SEA
home Win Probability: 0.6764407920671395
kickoff: 2026-12-26T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 32.54008668673603, 65.2537043112576 ]
week: 16

2026_16_ARI_NO

away Team: ARI
elo Probability: 0.62092874941989
expected Away Score: 19.339898950069536
expected Home Margin: 6.520227175406932
expected Home Score: 25.860126125476462
expected Total: 45.200025075546
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -9.21231181054877, "allowedSum": 49.90893385945418, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 30.72836816355766, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 10.498897431727556, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 1.2865856211787836, "scoringSum": 41.72529841443525, "winRateDifference": 0.3231340100756571 }
game Id: 2026_16_ARI_NO
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -11.513386322983456, 24.55384067379732 ]
home Team: NO
home Win Probability: 0.7005803068174495
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.84321626328522, 61.55683388780678 ]
week: 16

2026_16_CAR_PIT

away Team: CAR
elo Probability: 0.6637534597395692
expected Away Score: 19.85052643334152
expected Home Margin: 3.948402452597996
expected Home Score: 23.79892888593951
expected Total: 43.64945531928103
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -0.8095716611694463, "allowedSum": 46.125805825343065, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 63.13958934253924, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 0.020747756189061217, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -0.7888239049803865, "scoringSum": 40.471680353948074, "winRateDifference": 0.13907177641190377 }
game Id: 2026_16_CAR_PIT
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -14.085211045792391, 21.982015950988384 ]
home Team: PIT
home Win Probability: 0.6375363722969539
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.29264650702025, 60.00626413154181 ]
week: 16

2026_16_CIN_IND

away Team: CIN
elo Probability: 0.5762810489579764
expected Away Score: 24.02410023885968
expected Home Margin: -0.0874793624460084
expected Home Score: 23.93662087641367
expected Total: 47.96072111527335
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 3.5789021427706267, "allowedSum": 50.332716286169926, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -1.577420184442417, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -5.338719541177152, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -1.7598173984065255, "scoringSum": 48.2460415731959, "winRateDifference": -0.16571158957205295 }
game Id: 2026_16_CIN_IND
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.121092860836395, 17.94613413594438 ]
home Team: IND
home Win Probability: 0.4940862154883136
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 31.60391230301257, 64.31752992753414 ]
week: 16

2026_16_CLE_BAL

away Team: CLE
elo Probability: 0.6816432939085106
expected Away Score: 18.66803938187516
expected Home Margin: 6.730921973077052
expected Home Score: 25.398961354952213
expected Total: 44.067000736827374
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.8567650632454509, "allowedSum": 42.727252502647445, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 77.25726553661525, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 5.30719551363593, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 6.163960576881379, "scoringSum": 43.00286490537727, "winRateDifference": 0.007843207355800352 }
game Id: 2026_16_CLE_BAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -11.302691525313335, 24.76453547146744 ]
home Team: BAL
home Win Probability: 0.7289680911231727
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 27.71019192456659, 60.423809549088155 ]
week: 16

2026_16_LAC_MIA

away Team: LAC
elo Probability: 0.5202452726587153
expected Away Score: 21.064560850770107
expected Home Margin: -0.4036102772794119
expected Home Score: 20.660950573490695
expected Total: 41.7255114242608
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 5.2731297631048655, "allowedSum": 44.38666207310334, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -40.92444809834865, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -2.9843145988416104, "restDifference": -3, "scoringDifference": 2.288815164263248, "scoringSum": 37.62665689026378, "winRateDifference": 0.017622820267911954 }
game Id: 2026_16_LAC_MIA
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.4372237756698, 17.630003221110975 ]
home Team: MIA
home Win Probability: 0.4970748911484885
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 25.36870261200002, 58.08232023652158 ]
week: 16

2026_16_NE_NYJ

away Team: NE
elo Probability: 0.4050040007063827
expected Away Score: 25.501227027586467
expected Home Margin: -7.775896980648879
expected Home Score: 17.725330046937586
expected Total: 43.22655707452405
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 11.160250935133456, "allowedSum": 47.847657920515736, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 6, "eloDifference": -121.8218929188788, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -17.313118639831778, "restDifference": 1, "scoringDifference": -6.152867704698327, "scoringSum": 38.81302970294858, "winRateDifference": -0.4073762587659598 }
game Id: 2026_16_NE_NYJ
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -25.809510479039268, 10.257716517741509 ]
home Team: NYJ
home Win Probability: 0.25878772309026643
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.869748262263272, 59.58336588678483 ]
week: 16

2026_16_TB_ATL

away Team: TB
elo Probability: 0.5674978624533815
expected Away Score: 21.01968369728112
expected Home Margin: 2.529507554187078
expected Home Score: 23.5491912514682
expected Total: 44.56887494874932
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 0.7428606321840832, "allowedSum": 45.09069926776523, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -7.809611265357944, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 0.8891720441251241, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": 1.632032676309212, "scoringSum": 43.0026439379096, "winRateDifference": 0.217647865301128 }
game Id: 2026_16_TB_ATL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -15.50410594420331, 20.563121052577465 ]
home Team: ATL
home Win Probability: 0.5803548396160907
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 28.212066136488534, 60.9256837610101 ]
week: 16

2026_16_WAS_MIN

away Team: WAS
elo Probability: 0.6545120151927203
expected Away Score: 18.338541342249187
expected Home Margin: 6.376366422739823
expected Home Score: 24.714907764989007
expected Total: 43.053449107238194
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -7.716140287522826, "allowedSum": 41.65333835787344, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 55.99387007880364, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": 7.093880459681154, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -0.622259827841674, "scoringSum": 41.348896961866245, "winRateDifference": 0.26350429002773706 }
game Id: 2026_16_WAS_MIN
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -11.657247075650565, 24.40997992113021 ]
home Team: MIN
home Win Probability: 0.7073243895994541
kickoff: 2026-12-27T18:00:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.696640294977417, 59.410257919498974 ]
week: 16

2026_16_TEN_LV

away Team: TEN
elo Probability: 0.588433716229409
expected Away Score: 20.503270559544
expected Home Margin: 1.6225327544288748
expected Home Score: 22.12580331397287
expected Total: 42.62907387351687
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -3.425135367027682, "allowedSum": 50.739814580783275, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": 7.103103881227298, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -0.1582395829830352, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.583374950010711, "scoringSum": 35.75487009671673, "winRateDifference": 0.001615337553078966 }
game Id: 2026_16_TEN_LV
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -16.411080743961513, 19.656146252819266 ]
home Team: LV
home Win Probability: 0.5585938234828861
kickoff: 2026-12-27T21:05:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.272265061256093, 58.98588268577765 ]
week: 16

2026_16_SF_KC

away Team: SF
elo Probability: 0.5422143970025771
expected Away Score: 21.511426846859337
expected Home Margin: -0.05629356601219637
expected Home Score: 21.455133280847143
expected Total: 42.96656012770648
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": -4.066233025980779, "allowedSum": 44.84577596590781, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 10, "eloDifference": -25.596434177111632, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 6, "marginDifference": -0.3683472074195579, "restDifference": -4, "scoringDifference": -4.434580233400332, "scoringSum": 40.41122918909454, "winRateDifference": -0.29878221210346156 }
game Id: 2026_16_SF_KC
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -18.089907064402585, 17.97731993237819 ]
home Team: KC
home Win Probability: 0.5144679834371613
kickoff: 2026-12-27T21:25:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 26.6097513154457, 59.32336893996726 ]
week: 16

2026_16_JAX_DAL

away Team: JAX
elo Probability: 0.5368539518316265
expected Away Score: 25.87882763027056
expected Home Margin: -3.0576779914253023
expected Home Score: 22.82114963884526
expected Total: 48.69997726911582
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 7.955129442442523, "allowedSum": 47.483646130094186, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 7, "eloDifference": -29.344723364242327, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 7, "marginDifference": -11.951534183139096, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -3.9964047406965726, "scoringSum": 51.628986814469656, "winRateDifference": -0.2318308791520126 }
game Id: 2026_16_JAX_DAL
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-27
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -21.09129148981569, 14.975935506965085 ]
home Team: DAL
home Win Probability: 0.3920525880480942
kickoff: 2026-12-28T01:20:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 32.34316845685504, 65.0567860813766 ]
week: 16

2026_16_NYG_DET

away Team: NYG
elo Probability: 0.7266983382635306
expected Away Score: 20.929129022009143
expected Home Margin: 4.770807015149602
expected Home Score: 25.699936037158743
expected Total: 46.62906505916789
feature Values: Inspect feature Values
{ "allowedDifference": 1.908303450866189, "allowedSum": 46.233546400201504, "awayGames": 0, "awayRest": 8, "eloDifference": 114.88475791428914, "homeField": 1, "homeGames": 0, "homeRest": 8, "marginDifference": -2.070887507692838, "restDifference": 0, "scoringDifference": -0.162584056826649, "scoringSum": 47.55558028133629, "winRateDifference": 0.0329755096327472 }
game Id: 2026_16_NYG_DET
game Type: REG
gameday: 2026-12-28
home Margin Interval80: Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2)
[ -13.262806483240784, 22.804420513539988 ]
home Team: DET
home Win Probability: 0.6655981325334621
kickoff: 2026-12-29T01:15:00Z
market: Unavailable (null)
neutral: false
total Interval80: Inspect total Interval80 (2)
[ 30.272256246907112, 62.98587387142867 ]
week: 16

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