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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6051–6100 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][114]["gameday"] | 2026-11-01string |
| $["games"][114]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.449903931099442number |
| $["games"][114]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.617323065681333number |
| $["games"][114]["homeTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][114]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5707918638270172number |
| $["games"][114]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-01T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][114]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][114]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][114]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.674866747114606number |
| $["games"][114]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.38848437163617number |
| $["games"][114]["week"] | 8number |
| $["games"][115]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][115]["eloProbability"] | 0.6775094620364541number |
| $["games"][115]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.575618659599233number |
| $["games"][115]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 7.474746063861241number |
| $["games"][115]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.050364723460472number |
| $["games"][115]["expectedTotal"] | 46.625983383059705number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.705567902205825number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 50.459382045605125number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 73.95935526778408number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 9.039374864643314number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 5.333806962437492number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.672052009164936number |
| $["games"][115]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.11602609650017592number |
| $["games"][115]["gameId"] | 2026_08_TEN_CINstring |
| $["games"][115]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][115]["gameday"] | 2026-11-01string |
| $["games"][115]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -10.558867434529146number |
| $["games"][115]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 25.508359562251627number |
| $["games"][115]["homeTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][115]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7368677353195136number |
| $["games"][115]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-01T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][115]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][115]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][115]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.269174570798924number |
| $["games"][115]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.982792195320485number |
| $["games"][115]["week"] | 8number |
| $["games"][116]["awayTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][116]["eloProbability"] | 0.6199758788868076number |
| $["games"][116]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.124306461388073number |
| $["games"][116]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.293235077667195number |
| $["games"][116]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.41754153905527number |
| $["games"][116]["expectedTotal"] | 44.541848000443345number |
| $["games"][116]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.599131559892804number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.