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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6251–6300 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][120]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.03083551313805number |
| $["games"][120]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.74445313765961number |
| $["games"][120]["week"] | 8number |
| $["games"][121]["awayTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][121]["eloProbability"] | 0.5846130038102006number |
| $["games"][121]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.688216989999272number |
| $["games"][121]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.6673584471878669number |
| $["games"][121]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.355575437187134number |
| $["games"][121]["expectedTotal"] | 48.04379242718641number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.02775043912062number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.55626712677228number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 4.366229855656911number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.257033475574415number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.22928303645379number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 52.39610851871244number |
| $["games"][121]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.17689801068865713number |
| $["games"][121]["gameId"] | 2026_09_JAX_BALstring |
| $["games"][121]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][121]["gameday"] | 2026-11-05string |
| $["games"][121]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.366255051202522number |
| $["games"][121]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.700971945578253number |
| $["games"][121]["homeTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][121]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5234820268753825number |
| $["games"][121]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-06T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][121]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][121]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][121]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.68698361492563number |
| $["games"][121]["totalInterval80"][1] | 64.40060123944718number |
| $["games"][121]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][122]["awayTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][122]["eloProbability"] | 0.5018044142208762number |
| $["games"][122]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.625053854190156number |
| $["games"][122]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.7260931094583927number |
| $["games"][122]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.898960744731767number |
| $["games"][122]["expectedTotal"] | 46.52401459892192number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.4601271217249945number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.29368702167431number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 1.2538408659215747number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 0number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -2.225464056966823number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.