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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6301–6350 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -2.685591178691812number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.32026779291061number |
| $["games"][122]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.18708666763431475number |
| $["games"][122]["gameId"] | 2026_09_CIN_ATLstring |
| $["games"][122]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][122]["gameday"] | 2026-11-08string |
| $["games"][122]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.75970660784878number |
| $["games"][122]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.307520388931994number |
| $["games"][122]["homeTeam"] | ATLstring |
| $["games"][122]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.453437656719139number |
| $["games"][122]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-08T14:30:00Zstring |
| $["games"][122]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][122]["neutral"] | trueboolean |
| $["games"][122]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.167205786661142number |
| $["games"][122]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.8808234111827number |
| $["games"][122]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][123]["awayTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][123]["eloProbability"] | 0.5903198771960614number |
| $["games"][123]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.63479387928548number |
| $["games"][123]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.000728079006973number |
| $["games"][123]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.635521958292458number |
| $["games"][123]["expectedTotal"] | 42.27031583757793number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -0.5869326952482936number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.283554744153705number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 8.457005592902533number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 3.673422548807362number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 7number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.086489853559069number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 39.92539418205496number |
| $["games"][123]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.05791954826447748number |
| $["games"][123]["gameId"] | 2026_09_CLE_NOstring |
| $["games"][123]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][123]["gameday"] | 2026-11-08string |
| $["games"][123]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -13.032885419383415number |
| $["games"][123]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.03434157739736number |
| $["games"][123]["homeTeam"] | NOstring |
| $["games"][123]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6643661103280143number |
| $["games"][123]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-08T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][123]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][123]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][123]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.913507025317152number |
| $["games"][123]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.62712464983871number |
| $["games"][123]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][124]["awayTeam"] | DALstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.