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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 241–260 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_17_BAL_CIN
away Team BAL
elo Probability 0.5200635505042681
expected Away Score 23.44816598508427
expected Home Margin 0.8565000092790174
expected Home Score 24.304665994363287
expected Total 47.75283197944755 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 1.5848982887532015,
"allowedSum": 45.1689158546461,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 4,
"eloDifference": -41.05092708923485,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 4,
"marginDifference": -1.1653815440813111,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.4195167446718884,
"scoringSum": 49.58634222693054,
"winRateDifference": -0.037820042882722005
}
game Id 2026_17_BAL_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2026-12-31 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.17711348911137,
18.890113507669405
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.5210080778463951
kickoff 2027-01-01T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.396023167186776,
64.10964079170833
]
week 17 2026_17_BUF_MIA
away Team BUF
elo Probability 0.458385466687255
expected Away Score 24.978517900460982
expected Home Margin -4.018212441007824
expected Home Score 20.960305459453156
expected Total 45.93882335991414 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.4721151386856306,
"allowedSum": 47.18767669752257,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 9,
"eloDifference": -83.98378788537457,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -8.426947085523926,
"restDifference": -2,
"scoringDifference": -5.954831946838301,
"scoringSum": 45.87030400136533,
"winRateDifference": -0.11038587737101284
}
game Id 2026_17_BUF_MIA
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-22.051825939398213,
14.015401057382563
]
home Team MIA
home Win Probability 0.3581861604750583
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.58201454765336,
62.29563217217492
]
week 17 2026_17_DEN_NE
away Team DEN
elo Probability 0.5533062670391509
expected Away Score 20.31746502037394
expected Home Margin 2.385890273573637
expected Home Score 22.703355293947578
expected Total 43.02082031432152 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.9168603672658762,
"allowedSum": 37.60426735264816,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 9,
"eloDifference": -17.81770805762949,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.9328033136504803,
"restDifference": -2,
"scoringDifference": 1.0159429463846088,
"scoringSum": 43.949954461262294,
"winRateDifference": 0.03045940882013698
}
game Id 2026_17_DEN_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.647723224816753,
20.419503771964024
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.5894312926724757
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
26.664011502060735,
59.3776291265823
]
week 17 2026_17_IND_CLE
away Team IND
elo Probability 0.5292827948462079
expected Away Score 21.71259482718958
expected Home Margin 1.1397756610426597
expected Home Score 22.852370488232243
expected Total 44.56496531542182 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.020565494769279,
"allowedSum": 47.89105293417128,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -34.62891826293799,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 1.1969055716225323,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -4.823659923146742,
"scoringSum": 41.662564251642635,
"winRateDifference": 0.1956884250989746
}
game Id 2026_17_IND_CLE
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.89383783734773,
19.173389159433047
]
home Team CLE
home Win Probability 0.5249093515417489
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.20815650316104,
60.9217741276826
]
week 17 2026_17_KC_LAC
away Team KC
elo Probability 0.5936744576379616
expected Away Score 18.6010556775064
expected Home Margin 2.926641343754823
expected Home Score 21.527697021261226
expected Total 40.12875269876763 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.8330053149642822,
"allowedSum": 39.94653762496275,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 10.869696174087949,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.5136017001174469,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.31940361484683777,
"scoringSum": 35.65724534084737,
"winRateDifference": 0.1822111189927002
}
game Id 2026_17_KC_LAC
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.106972154635564,
20.96025484214521
]
home Team LAC
home Win Probability 0.6085008179663198
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
23.771943886506847,
56.48556151102841
]
week 17 2026_17_LA_TB
away Team LAR
elo Probability 0.4892180473595388
expected Away Score 24.46193974127756
expected Home Margin -2.2261450172025925
expected Home Score 22.235794724074967
expected Total 46.697734465352525 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.9819783971014644,
"allowedSum": 46.32981703268261,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 9,
"eloDifference": -62.49322965710712,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.694647316547549,
"restDifference": -2,
"scoringDifference": -6.676625713649013,
"scoringSum": 48.04723697524939,
"winRateDifference": -0.1634951242077891
}
game Id 2026_17_LA_TB
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-20.25975851559298,
15.807468481187795
]
home Team TB
home Win Probability 0.4176442338497342
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.340925653091745,
63.054543277613305
]
week 17 2026_17_MIN_NYJ
away Team MIN
elo Probability 0.4184769196299048
expected Away Score 24.570410039725083
expected Home Margin -7.231628995651896
expected Home Score 17.338781044073187
expected Total 41.90919108379827 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 12.535355392649286,
"allowedSum": 46.472553462999905,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -112.15817844610616,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -16.568592960536446,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -4.033237567887159,
"scoringSum": 36.693399566137415,
"winRateDifference": -0.4032781860034135
}
game Id 2026_17_MIN_NYJ
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-25.265242494042283,
10.801984502738492
]
home Team NYJ
home Win Probability 0.27954678415496803
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.55238227153749,
58.26599989605905
]
week 17 2026_17_NO_ATL
away Team NO
elo Probability 0.6185884325226007
expected Away Score 20.88523470256623
expected Home Margin 2.6848564610422168
expected Home Score 23.57009116360845
expected Total 44.455325866174675 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.5684689255219517,
"allowedSum": 43.265090974427366,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 29.003173720399445,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -1.7570726362195652,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.8113962893023867,
"scoringSum": 43.82328032491642,
"winRateDifference": 0.09919028384291562
}
game Id 2026_17_NO_ATL
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.348757037348172,
20.718469959432603
]
home Team ATL
home Win Probability 0.5947680496011858
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.098517053913895,
60.812134678435456
]
week 17 2026_17_NYG_DAL
away Team NYG
elo Probability 0.6630200728845265
expected Away Score 22.783257280486037
expected Home Margin 2.1607713466110123
expected Home Score 24.94402862709705
expected Total 47.72728590758309 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.556766311600693,
"allowedSum": 49.882009260936016,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": 62.56905792674115,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -5.599557443795617,
"restDifference": 1,
"scoringDifference": -0.04279113219492814,
"scoringSum": 47.675373205968015,
"winRateDifference": -0.011693038191531556
}
game Id 2026_17_NYG_DAL
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.872842151779375,
20.1943848450014
]
home Team DAL
home Win Probability 0.5733487334833287
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.370477095322308,
64.08409471984388
]
week 17 2026_17_PIT_TEN
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.42036754157519096
expected Away Score 23.51481193409685
expected Home Margin -2.9784882942498014
expected Home Score 20.53632363984705
expected Total 44.0511355739439 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.424357891818666,
"allowedSum": 49.74059205599229,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -110.80940894457922,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -4.596663592938786,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -0.17230570112012344,
"scoringSum": 39.51055074784757,
"winRateDifference": -0.1822636619216908
}
game Id 2026_17_PIT_TEN
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-21.012101792640188,
15.055125204140586
]
home Team TEN
home Win Probability 0.39608021257525267
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.69432676168312,
60.40794438620468
]
week 17 2026_17_SEA_CAR
away Team SEA
elo Probability 0.3928089009452989
expected Away Score 25.851581282700085
expected Home Margin -6.549224806786983
expected Home Score 19.302356475913104
expected Total 45.15393775861319 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.985004523679208,
"allowedSum": 40.950372962833306,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 9,
"eloDifference": -130.6576305174583,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -12.24930784207991,
"restDifference": -2,
"scoringDifference": -6.264303318400707,
"scoringSum": 47.52480757732917,
"winRateDifference": -0.4468955994121469
}
game Id 2026_17_SEA_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-24.58283830517737,
11.484388691603405
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.29258689460117665
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.79712894635241,
61.51074657087397
]
week 17 2026_17_WAS_JAX
away Team WAS
elo Probability 0.6379789590032277
expected Away Score 19.505986741635905
expected Home Margin 8.06921905331958
expected Home Score 27.575205794955483
expected Total 47.08119253659139 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -4.920480978872305,
"allowedSum": 44.448997666523965,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 43.42901710239721,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 11.747598361601463,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 6.827117382729156,
"scoringSum": 48.798274172437075,
"winRateDifference": 0.2534920980155618
}
game Id 2026_17_WAS_JAX
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-9.964394445070807,
26.10283255170997
]
home Team JAX
home Win Probability 0.7470144958763386
kickoff 2027-01-03T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.724383724330607,
63.43800134885217
]
week 17 2026_17_LV_ARI
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.5902106508075331
expected Away Score 20.981621262600022
expected Home Margin 1.5533565095327564
expected Home Score 22.534977772132777
expected Total 43.5165990347328 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.90328322812368,
"allowedSum": 53.217962441879266,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 8.378550368521246,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -1.7696744048484625,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 4.133608823275221,
"scoringSum": 36.305103969981246,
"winRateDifference": -0.12082686733716104
}
game Id 2026_17_LV_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.480256988857633,
19.586970007923146
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.5640592257397952
kickoff 2027-01-03T21:05:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.15979022247202,
59.87340784699358
]
week 17 2026_17_DET_CHI
away Team DET
elo Probability 0.5285040324673859
expected Away Score 22.40875400125638
expected Home Margin 2.109491116215533
expected Home Score 24.51824511747191
expected Total 46.92699911872829 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.4788107869467204,
"allowedSum": 46.66303906412098,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 6,
"eloDifference": -35.171870991809556,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 9,
"marginDifference": 1.53683068890511,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 0.058019901958385134,
"scoringSum": 47.45101612646803,
"winRateDifference": 0.027675683331676748
}
game Id 2026_17_DET_CHI
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.924122382174854,
20.14310461460592
]
home Team CHI
home Win Probability 0.5576305179406843
kickoff 2027-01-03T21:25:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.57019030646751,
63.28380793098907
]
week 17 2026_17_PHI_SF
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.5496048524265225
expected Away Score 21.988033655774142
expected Home Margin 0.17626999481654382
expected Home Score 22.16430365059069
expected Total 44.15233730636483 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 4.810490578371141,
"allowedSum": 44.101518413517454,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 10,
"eloDifference": -20.417257791560814,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -3.3197683256194868,
"restDifference": -3,
"scoringDifference": 1.490722252751656,
"scoringSum": 43.355087169743214,
"winRateDifference": 0.09879159965295448
}
game Id 2026_17_PHI_SF
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-03 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.857343503573844,
18.20988349320693
]
home Team SF
home Win Probability 0.5094828549853047
kickoff 2027-01-04T01:20:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.795528494104047,
60.50914611862561
]
week 17 2026_17_HOU_GB
away Team HOU
elo Probability 0.5348214186734545
expected Away Score 23.255992323415427
expected Home Margin -1.6851695765283408
expected Home Score 21.57082274688709
expected Total 44.82681507030251 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 3.881730899568417,
"allowedSum": 44.29599612455539,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 11,
"eloDifference": -30.764367275422956,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": -6.713294658291469,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": -2.8315637587230498,
"scoringSum": 45.36732696147599,
"winRateDifference": -0.32878581922030103
}
game Id 2026_17_HOU_GB
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-04 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.71878307491873,
16.348443921862046
]
home Team GB
home Win Probability 0.4524977516282592
kickoff 2027-01-05T01:15:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.470006258041735,
61.183623882563296
]
week 17 2026_18_ATL_CAR
away Team ATL
elo Probability 0.5394312064681885
expected Away Score 22.26231883594818
expected Home Margin 0.22005631448040397
expected Home Score 22.48237515042858
expected Total 44.74469398637676 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.5509087932816001,
"allowedSum": 46.384468693230914,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -27.543376531665672,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -2.237994970926767,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -1.6870861776451704,
"scoringSum": 42.947590436573634,
"winRateDifference": -0.25992087862470364
}
game Id 2026_18_ATL_CAR
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.813557183909985,
18.25366981287079
]
home Team CAR
home Win Probability 0.5142829341122822
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.38788517411598,
61.10150279863754
]
week 18 2026_18_CHI_MIN
away Team CHI
elo Probability 0.6128169150194281
expected Away Score 19.97536739477417
expected Home Margin 3.7541606727462433
expected Home Score 23.729528067520416
expected Total 43.70489546229459 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -5.623515103411819,
"allowedSum": 39.56071317376244,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 24.765747344910324,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 2.232315656210896,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -3.391199447200922,
"scoringSum": 44.11783658122549,
"winRateDifference": 0.1694988400082324
}
game Id 2026_18_CHI_MIN
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-14.279452825644144,
21.787774171136633
]
home Team MIN
home Win Probability 0.62576061197629
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.348086650033807,
60.06170427455537
]
week 18 2026_18_CLE_CIN
away Team CLE
elo Probability 0.6283222340839798
expected Away Score 19.53782496959372
expected Home Margin 5.508640524710714
expected Home Score 25.04646549430443
expected Total 44.58429046389815 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.4416633519986526,
"allowedSum": 44.312150791400654,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 36.2063384473804,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 4.14181396955462,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 6.583477321553268,
"scoringSum": 43.42238165004916,
"winRateDifference": -0.029976835526921652
}
game Id 2026_18_CLE_CIN
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.524972973679674,
23.5422540231011
]
home Team CIN
home Win Probability 0.6866730064163968
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.22748165163737,
60.94109927615893
]
week 18 2026_18_DAL_WAS
away Team DAL
elo Probability 0.55861173122964
expected Away Score 22.887189165129485
expected Home Margin 1.2069104179033294
expected Home Score 24.094099583032815
expected Total 46.9812887481623 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.0346484635702176,
"allowedSum": 52.40412710896649,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -14.084293738154884,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.20393582153763168,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.8307126420325837,
"scoringSum": 44.8018694317405,
"winRateDifference": -0.02166121886354916
}
game Id 2026_18_DAL_WAS
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-16.826703080487057,
19.24052391629372
]
home Team WAS
home Win Probability 0.5313668360471719
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
30.62447993590152,
63.33809756042308
]
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