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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6551–6600 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -24.202132008867693number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.780158039605004number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -7number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -6.430524497099253number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.76836622309979number |
| $["games"][130]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.21732557396045857number |
| $["games"][130]["gameId"] | 2026_09_HOU_LACstring |
| $["games"][130]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][130]["gameday"] | 2026-11-08string |
| $["games"][130]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -20.242027968290532number |
| $["games"][130]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 15.82519902849024number |
| $["games"][130]["homeTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][130]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4460091111619537number |
| $["games"][130]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-08T21:05:00Zstring |
| $["games"][130]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][130]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][130]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.55056105416869number |
| $["games"][130]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.26417867869025number |
| $["games"][130]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][131]["awayTeam"] | LVstring |
| $["games"][131]["eloProbability"] | 0.7360052170391141number |
| $["games"][131]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.166397245922308number |
| $["games"][131]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 8.959263841932009number |
| $["games"][131]["expectedHomeScore"] | 26.125661087854315number |
| $["games"][131]["expectedTotal"] | 43.29205833377662number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 0.7986648890665009number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 48.11334410282209number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 123.11421931854012number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 5.538492248827925number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 7number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.337157137894426number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 38.50865228460045number |
| $["games"][131]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.24560799736937527number |
| $["games"][131]["gameId"] | 2026_09_LV_SFstring |
| $["games"][131]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][131]["gameday"] | 2026-11-08string |
| $["games"][131]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -9.07434965645838number |
| $["games"][131]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 26.99287734032239number |
| $["games"][131]["homeTeam"] | SFstring |
| $["games"][131]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.775464054189952number |
| $["games"][131]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-08T21:05:00Zstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.