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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6601–6650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][131]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][131]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][131]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.935249521515843number |
| $["games"][131]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.64886714603741number |
| $["games"][131]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][132]["awayTeam"] | ARIstring |
| $["games"][132]["eloProbability"] | 0.7779951748036928number |
| $["games"][132]["expectedAwayScore"] | 16.632241778817278number |
| $["games"][132]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 13.7558065629837number |
| $["games"][132]["expectedHomeScore"] | 30.388048341800975number |
| $["games"][132]["expectedTotal"] | 47.020290120618256number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -12.077938615424426number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.04330705457852number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 162.84579586974974number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 18.753137666661132number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -1number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.6751990512367065number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.113911844493174number |
| $["games"][132]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.609299014706016number |
| $["games"][132]["gameId"] | 2026_09_ARI_SEAstring |
| $["games"][132]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][132]["gameday"] | 2026-11-08string |
| $["games"][132]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -4.277806935406689number |
| $["games"][132]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 31.789420061374088number |
| $["games"][132]["homeTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][132]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.8654987913627616number |
| $["games"][132]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-08T21:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][132]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][132]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][132]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.663481308357476number |
| $["games"][132]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.37709893287904number |
| $["games"][132]["week"] | 9number |
| $["games"][133]["awayTeam"] | GBstring |
| $["games"][133]["eloProbability"] | 0.6116943038966064number |
| $["games"][133]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.499272476572415number |
| $["games"][133]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.018189922785108number |
| $["games"][133]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.51746239935752number |
| $["games"][133]["expectedTotal"] | 44.016734875929934number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -5.745160019370761number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.43256700475304number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 23.944270020352633number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][133]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.