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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6751–6800 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][136]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.844660563935435number |
| $["games"][136]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.033354257055080716number |
| $["games"][136]["gameId"] | 2026_10_WAS_NYGstring |
| $["games"][136]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][136]["gameday"] | 2026-11-12string |
| $["games"][136]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -15.176461167896258number |
| $["games"][136]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 20.89076582888452number |
| $["games"][136]["homeTeam"] | NYGstring |
| $["games"][136]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5891735714667292number |
| $["games"][136]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-13T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][136]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][136]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][136]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.799747765444273number |
| $["games"][136]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.513365389965834number |
| $["games"][136]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][137]["awayTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][137]["eloProbability"] | 0.5010684110596495number |
| $["games"][137]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.202089614226693number |
| $["games"][137]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.2883683565803974number |
| $["games"][137]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.913721257646294number |
| $["games"][137]["expectedTotal"] | 45.11581087187299number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 5.727221432842708number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.41462841822499number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 0.7424091741265784number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 0number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -4.513672024411336number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.2135494084313692number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.17944681607827number |
| $["games"][137]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.2012725961024554number |
| $["games"][137]["gameId"] | 2026_10_NE_DETstring |
| $["games"][137]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][137]["gameday"] | 2026-11-15string |
| $["games"][137]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -19.321981854970787number |
| $["games"][137]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 16.74524514180999number |
| $["games"][137]["homeTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][137]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4570449608188843number |
| $["games"][137]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-15T14:30:00Zstring |
| $["games"][137]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][137]["neutral"] | trueboolean |
| $["games"][137]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.759002059612207number |
| $["games"][137]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.47261968413377number |
| $["games"][137]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][138]["awayTeam"] | BUFstring |
| $["games"][138]["eloProbability"] | 0.36994140709046286number |
| $["games"][138]["expectedAwayScore"] | 27.170029252143888number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.