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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6801–6850 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][138]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -8.703632753098079number |
| $["games"][138]["expectedHomeScore"] | 18.46639649904581number |
| $["games"][138]["expectedTotal"] | 45.6364257511897number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 7.146173648406126number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 51.861735207243065number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -147.49919795210735number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -16.728660623382815number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 1number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -9.582486974976687number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.24264897322694number |
| $["games"][138]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.3211827833703008number |
| $["games"][138]["gameId"] | 2026_10_BUF_NYJstring |
| $["games"][138]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][138]["gameday"] | 2026-11-15string |
| $["games"][138]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -26.737246251488465number |
| $["games"][138]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 9.329980745292309number |
| $["games"][138]["homeTeam"] | NYJstring |
| $["games"][138]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.22327278295799569number |
| $["games"][138]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-15T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][138]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][138]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][138]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.27961693892892number |
| $["games"][138]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.99323456345048number |
| $["games"][138]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][139]["awayTeam"] | CARstring |
| $["games"][139]["eloProbability"] | 0.5764463736464295number |
| $["games"][139]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.121347104874147number |
| $["games"][139]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.6566059902731816number |
| $["games"][139]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.777953095147332number |
| $["games"][139]["expectedTotal"] | 43.89930020002148number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.119377718803552number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.81599976770896number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -1.4597971887337735number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 3.995067607146332number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.8756898883427837number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.13619414727125number |
| $["games"][139]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.16073059478178803number |
| $["games"][139]["gameId"] | 2026_10_CAR_NOstring |
| $["games"][139]["gameType"] | REGstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.