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NFL game forecasts & backtests 272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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272 matches · 261–272 shown. Each record keeps all its stats together. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
2026_18_DET_GB
away Team DET
elo Probability 0.5435140168100585
expected Away Score 22.984791264160087
expected Home Margin 0.08384270671917315
expected Home Score 23.06863397087926
expected Total 46.05342523503935 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 0.01793858652805369,
"allowedSum": 48.15978843759575,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -24.68667919447921,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": -2.4465550974064074,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": -2.428616510878353,
"scoringSum": 44.96437971363129,
"winRateDifference": -0.1243898221919708
}
game Id 2026_18_DET_GB
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-17.949770791671213,
18.11745620510956
]
home Team GB
home Win Probability 0.5018855134520119
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.69661642277857,
62.41023404730013
]
week 18 2026_18_JAX_IND
away Team JAX
elo Probability 0.524069131694941
expected Away Score 25.822830429489706
expected Home Margin -3.3916816835939003
expected Home Score 22.431148745895804
expected Total 48.25397917538551 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 7.191550870644448,
"allowedSum": 46.72006755829611,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -38.26211741802035,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -11.76113456083288,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -4.569583690188427,
"scoringSum": 51.05580786497781,
"winRateDifference": -0.3804296431434321
}
game Id 2026_18_JAX_IND
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-21.42529518198429,
14.641931814796488
]
home Team IND
home Win Probability 0.3862604908331361
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
31.89717036312473,
64.61078798764629
]
week 18 2026_18_LAC_DEN
away Team LAC
elo Probability 0.6269680379292386
expected Away Score 18.11354134561946
expected Home Margin 5.22695653036171
expected Home Score 23.34049787598117
expected Total 41.45403922160063 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.2962022950422174,
"allowedSum": 38.817330014956255,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 35.19974281142686,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 4.094287189480798,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 3.7980848944385777,
"scoringSum": 39.13592662043911,
"winRateDifference": 0.1837427642144467
}
game Id 2026_18_LAC_DEN
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-12.806656968028678,
23.2605700287521
]
home Team DEN
home Win Probability 0.682374798684515
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
25.09723040933985,
57.81084803386141
]
week 18 2026_18_LV_KC
away Team LV
elo Probability 0.7063999157251384
expected Away Score 16.867225261274953
expected Home Margin 6.6800242470383715
expected Home Score 23.547249508313328
expected Total 40.41447476958828 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -3.267568136914278,
"allowedSum": 44.04711107684131,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 97.51778514142848,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 5.170145041408367,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 1.9025769044940937,
"scoringSum": 34.07407205120012,
"winRateDifference": -0.05317421473408629
}
game Id 2026_18_LV_KC
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-11.353589251352016,
24.71363774542876
]
home Team KC
home Win Probability 0.7357873047232139
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
24.0576659573275,
56.77128358184906
]
week 18 2026_18_MIA_NE
away Team MIA
elo Probability 0.6575160875563738
expected Away Score 18.365209240292977
expected Home Margin 7.19860845803626
expected Home Score 25.56381769832924
expected Total 43.929026938622215 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.486192425412959,
"allowedSum": 43.17359941079524,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 58.30648285214602,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 9.011405101972889,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.5252126765599385,
"scoringSum": 42.44068473108697,
"winRateDifference": 0.19657935276667177
}
game Id 2026_18_MIA_NE
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-10.835005040354128,
25.23222195642665
]
home Team NE
home Win Probability 0.7316050693193084
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.572218126361435,
60.285835750882995
]
week 18 2026_18_NYJ_BUF
away Team NYJ
elo Probability 0.7623631024369327
expected Away Score 16.759581930285854
expected Home Margin 12.48227679659551
expected Home Score 29.241858726881368
expected Total 46.00144065716722 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -7.146173648406126,
"allowedSum": 51.861735207243065,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 147.49919795210735,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 16.728660623382815,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 9.582486974976687,
"scoringSum": 42.24264897322694,
"winRateDifference": 0.3211827833703008
}
game Id 2026_18_NYJ_BUF
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-5.551336701794877,
30.515890294985898
]
home Team BUF
home Win Probability 0.8495686330410894
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.64463184490644,
62.358249469428
]
week 18 2026_18_PHI_NYG
away Team PHI
elo Probability 0.39109856535307513
expected Away Score 22.85751651464235
expected Home Margin -1.1188256756701338
expected Home Score 21.738690838972214
expected Total 44.59620735361457 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 2.517107557094505,
"allowedSum": 41.808135392240814,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -131.9043097809497,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 0.40979215349118303,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 2.9268997105856904,
"scoringSum": 44.79126462757725,
"winRateDifference": -0.03782542615842577
}
game Id 2026_18_PHI_NYG
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-19.15243917406052,
16.914787822720253
]
home Team NYG
home Win Probability 0.4533057035095522
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.239398541353783,
60.95301616587535
]
week 18 2026_18_PIT_BAL
away Team PIT
elo Probability 0.5843818329258454
expected Away Score 20.068689922754352
expected Home Margin 4.9112654765572055
expected Home Score 24.979955399311557
expected Total 45.04864532206591 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -0.866108299140361,
"allowedSum": 44.45012586503326,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 4.200873412439705,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 10,
"marginDifference": 5.60809281578584,
"restDifference": 3,
"scoringDifference": 4.741984516645481,
"scoringSum": 44.42484096561317,
"winRateDifference": -0.028417522538792872
}
game Id 2026_18_PIT_BAL
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-13.122348021833185,
22.944878974947592
]
home Team BAL
home Win Probability 0.6626740556961412
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
28.69183650980513,
61.40545413432669
]
week 18 2026_18_SEA_LA
away Team SEA
elo Probability 0.5318886016554942
expected Away Score 24.59402324740081
expected Home Margin -0.6109409713689518
expected Home Score 23.983082276031855
expected Total 48.577105523432664 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 6.6732134953149895,
"allowedSum": 41.63858193446909,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -32.811413063327564,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -6.205837598730718,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.4673758965842651,
"scoringSum": 54.25648679231414,
"winRateDifference": -0.24112746188078216
}
game Id 2026_18_SEA_LA
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-18.64455446975934,
17.422672527021437
]
home Team LAR
home Win Probability 0.4787059346667932
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
32.22029671117188,
64.93391433569344
]
week 18 2026_18_SF_ARI
away Team SF
elo Probability 0.41487064924536743
expected Away Score 25.409306377375927
expected Home Margin -4.462010959607175
expected Home Score 20.94729541776875
expected Total 46.35660179514468 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": 5.104618339057179,
"allowedSum": 54.01662733094577,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -114.73566895001886,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": -7.308166653676388,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": -2.203548314619205,
"scoringSum": 42.64226110787567,
"winRateDifference": -0.3664348647065363
}
game Id 2026_18_SF_ARI
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-22.495624457997565,
13.571602538783212
]
home Team ARI
home Win Probability 0.34651677701682204
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.999792982883896,
62.71341060740546
]
week 18 2026_18_TB_NO
away Team TB
elo Probability 0.5261496255686138
expected Away Score 20.691925509320416
expected Home Margin 2.230465988958407
expected Home Score 22.922391498278824
expected Total 43.61431700759924 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -1.8256082933378688,
"allowedSum": 42.52223034224328,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": -36.81278498575739,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 7,
"marginDifference": 2.6462446803446893,
"restDifference": 0,
"scoringDifference": 0.8206363870068252,
"scoringSum": 42.1912476486072,
"winRateDifference": 0.1184575814582124
}
game Id 2026_18_TB_NO
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-15.80314750943198,
20.264079487348795
]
home Team NO
home Win Probability 0.5729169402756479
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
27.25750819533846,
59.97112581986002
]
week 18 2026_18_TEN_HOU
away Team TEN
elo Probability 0.7541262072390068
expected Away Score 17.64168111324005
expected Home Margin 10.235094953398834
expected Home Score 27.87677606663889
expected Total 45.518457179878936 feature Values Inspect feature Values {
"allowedDifference": -6.875342361411992,
"allowedSum": 47.28960758639896,
"awayGames": 0,
"awayRest": 7,
"eloDifference": 139.69271720561142,
"homeField": 1,
"homeGames": 0,
"homeRest": 6,
"marginDifference": 11.305665198147782,
"restDifference": -1,
"scoringDifference": 4.430322836735797,
"scoringSum": 43.76856788346324,
"winRateDifference": 0.3479778157721514
}
game Id 2026_18_TEN_HOU
game Type REG
gameday 2027-01-10 home Margin Interval80 Inspect home Margin Interval80 (2) [
-7.798518544991554,
28.268708451789223
]
home Team HOU
home Win Probability 0.8056662581765378
kickoff 2027-01-10T18:00:00Z
market Unavailable (null)
neutral false total Interval80 Inspect total Interval80 (2) [
29.161648367618156,
61.87526599213972
]
week 18 ← Previous Page 14 of 14 End of results How to read and verify this data JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
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