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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 6951–7000 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][142]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5814667108080501number |
| $["games"][142]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-15T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][142]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][142]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][142]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.673513415492813number |
| $["games"][142]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.387131040014374number |
| $["games"][142]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][143]["awayTeam"] | MIAstring |
| $["games"][143]["eloProbability"] | 0.5754279178454887number |
| $["games"][143]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.98657301317658number |
| $["games"][143]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 2.2257730734992003number |
| $["games"][143]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.21234608667578number |
| $["games"][143]["expectedTotal"] | 46.19891909985236number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.1259132963661784number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 51.78570513257438number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -2.1842020150534154number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 1.159462763764993number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.285376060131174number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.2008481146582number |
| $["games"][143]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.1979605551514819number |
| $["games"][143]["gameId"] | 2026_10_MIA_INDstring |
| $["games"][143]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][143]["gameday"] | 2026-11-15string |
| $["games"][143]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -15.807840424891188number |
| $["games"][143]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 20.25938657188959number |
| $["games"][143]["homeTeam"] | INDstring |
| $["games"][143]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5803868320280962number |
| $["games"][143]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-15T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][143]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][143]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][143]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.84211028759158number |
| $["games"][143]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.55572791211314number |
| $["games"][143]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][144]["awayTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][144]["eloProbability"] | 0.5583331505157645number |
| $["games"][144]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.540152893820768number |
| $["games"][144]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.05779169366979442number |
| $["games"][144]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.482361200150976number |
| $["games"][144]["expectedTotal"] | 43.02251409397174number |
| $["games"][144]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 7.120264476886593number |
| $["games"][144]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.05746254723721number |
| $["games"][144]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][144]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][144]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -14.28055554757998number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.