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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7151–7200 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][149]["eloProbability"] | 0.5778224313350214number |
| $["games"][149]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.25793444282925number |
| $["games"][149]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.77358219824037number |
| $["games"][149]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.03151664106962number |
| $["games"][149]["expectedTotal"] | 43.28945108389887number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.2352426279472155number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.34877493794568number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 8number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -0.4803028397247999number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 11number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 4.679249250181846number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 6.914491878129059number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.25233360412959number |
| $["games"][149]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.023193897571205047number |
| $["games"][149]["gameId"] | 2026_10_LAC_BALstring |
| $["games"][149]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][149]["gameday"] | 2026-11-16string |
| $["games"][149]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -13.260031300150018number |
| $["games"][149]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 22.807195696630757number |
| $["games"][149]["homeTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][149]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6629416752015884number |
| $["games"][149]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-17T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][149]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][149]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][149]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.932642271638088number |
| $["games"][149]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.64625989615965number |
| $["games"][149]["week"] | 10number |
| $["games"][150]["awayTeam"] | INDstring |
| $["games"][150]["eloProbability"] | 0.6690911765466836number |
| $["games"][150]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.129230750823623number |
| $["games"][150]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 7.0657032319696675number |
| $["games"][150]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.194933982793287number |
| $["games"][150]["expectedTotal"] | 47.32416473361691number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -6.748676601976793number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.16294182696376number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 67.31078212226976number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 7.605009874681621number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 0.8563332727048305number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.34255744749421number |
| $["games"][150]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.3976633088440285number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.