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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7251–7300 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][152]["expectedTotal"] | 45.542727481398714number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.6756799603098074number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 45.25969752620271number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -67.34046275497894number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.628840571974901number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 1number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.953160611665094number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 45.21366487059356number |
| $["games"][152]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.1106542538731109number |
| $["games"][152]["gameId"] | 2026_11_BAL_CARstring |
| $["games"][152]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][152]["gameday"] | 2026-11-22string |
| $["games"][152]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -19.832222994983866number |
| $["games"][152]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 16.235004001796913number |
| $["games"][152]["homeTeam"] | CARstring |
| $["games"][152]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.431446191135293number |
| $["games"][152]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-22T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][152]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][152]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][152]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.185918669137937number |
| $["games"][152]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.899536293659494number |
| $["games"][152]["week"] | 11number |
| $["games"][153]["awayTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][153]["eloProbability"] | 0.4470757901379483number |
| $["games"][153]["expectedAwayScore"] | 24.89443924355756number |
| $["games"][153]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -2.350594147738444number |
| $["games"][153]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.54384509581912number |
| $["games"][153]["expectedTotal"] | 47.43828433937668number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.3983631308418296number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.92687981849349number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -91.91378129098348number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -6.35197673934348number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.953613608501645number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 51.67177794666459number |
| $["games"][153]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.22013784096048103number |
| $["games"][153]["gameId"] | 2026_11_JAX_NYGstring |
| $["games"][153]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][153]["gameday"] | 2026-11-22string |
| $["games"][153]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -20.384207646128832number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.