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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7301–7350 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][153]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 15.683019350651945number |
| $["games"][153]["homeTeam"] | NYGstring |
| $["games"][153]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4073498133372477number |
| $["games"][153]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-22T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][153]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][153]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][153]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.0814755271159number |
| $["games"][153]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.79509315163746number |
| $["games"][153]["week"] | 11number |
| $["games"][154]["awayTeam"] | MIAstring |
| $["games"][154]["eloProbability"] | 0.6899862450501287number |
| $["games"][154]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.292719108313573number |
| $["games"][154]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 7.801476656562732number |
| $["games"][154]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.094195764876307number |
| $["games"][154]["expectedTotal"] | 46.38691487318988number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -2.4721151386856306number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.18767669752257number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 83.98378788537457number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 8.426947085523926number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 5.954831946838301number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 45.87030400136533number |
| $["games"][154]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.11038587737101284number |
| $["games"][154]["gameId"] | 2026_11_MIA_BUFstring |
| $["games"][154]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][154]["gameday"] | 2026-11-22string |
| $["games"][154]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -10.232136841827655number |
| $["games"][154]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 25.83509015495312number |
| $["games"][154]["homeTeam"] | BUFstring |
| $["games"][154]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7483351504468349number |
| $["games"][154]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-22T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][154]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][154]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][154]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.0301060609291number |
| $["games"][154]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.74372368545066number |
| $["games"][154]["week"] | 11number |
| $["games"][155]["awayTeam"] | NOstring |
| $["games"][155]["eloProbability"] | 0.6496004824792228number |
| $["games"][155]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.00186379759789number |
| $["games"][155]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 4.930609997703629number |
| $["games"][155]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.932473795301515number |
| $["games"][155]["expectedTotal"] | 44.9343375928994number |
| $["games"][155]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.2438031141344226number |
| $["games"][155]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.94042516303983number |
| $["games"][155]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.