Loading DraftADynasty…
Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7501–7550 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][159]["week"] | 11number |
| $["games"][160]["awayTeam"] | PITstring |
| $["games"][160]["eloProbability"] | 0.6331739824143584number |
| $["games"][160]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.53955934797902number |
| $["games"][160]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 5.7642658860461164number |
| $["games"][160]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.303825234025137number |
| $["games"][160]["expectedTotal"] | 42.843384582004155number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.0126031645136564number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.303630999659966number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 39.825172046749number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 4.103357398525591number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 7number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.0907542340119356number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.77361068297962number |
| $["games"][160]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.033831926652191036number |
| $["games"][160]["gameId"] | 2026_11_PIT_PHIstring |
| $["games"][160]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][160]["gameday"] | 2026-11-22string |
| $["games"][160]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.269347612344273number |
| $["games"][160]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.797879384436506number |
| $["games"][160]["homeTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][160]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6902454001056633number |
| $["games"][160]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-22T21:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][160]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][160]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][160]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.486575769743375number |
| $["games"][160]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.200193394264936number |
| $["games"][160]["week"] | 11number |
| $["games"][161]["awayTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][161]["eloProbability"] | 0.510084556081176number |
| $["games"][161]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.326721665592256number |
| $["games"][161]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.2377694013184128number |
| $["games"][161]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.088952264273846number |
| $["games"][161]["expectedTotal"] | 43.4156739298661number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 7.487405460768986number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.4246035311196number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 7.008417721998967number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 0number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.427819316533838number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][161]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 2.0595861442351513number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.