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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7651–7700 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][164]["gameday"] | 2026-11-26string |
| $["games"][164]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -15.231858311442496number |
| $["games"][164]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 20.83536868533828number |
| $["games"][164]["homeTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][164]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.595773203245531number |
| $["games"][164]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-26T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][164]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][164]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][164]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.790298015472004number |
| $["games"][164]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.503915639993565number |
| $["games"][164]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][165]["awayTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][165]["eloProbability"] | 0.4793816131667354number |
| $["games"][165]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.700214558123225number |
| $["games"][165]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.242376589687744number |
| $["games"][165]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.45783796843548number |
| $["games"][165]["expectedTotal"] | 46.158052526558706number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 8.073873868695198number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.36490170384151number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -69.33525185420854number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.189765290304434number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 2.8841085783907623number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 44.74847349538233number |
| $["games"][165]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.049518464349957325number |
| $["games"][165]["gameId"] | 2026_12_PHI_DALstring |
| $["games"][165]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][165]["gameday"] | 2026-11-26string |
| $["games"][165]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -19.27599008807813number |
| $["games"][165]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 16.791236908702643number |
| $["games"][165]["homeTeam"] | DALstring |
| $["games"][165]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4527249580921902number |
| $["games"][165]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-26T21:30:00Zstring |
| $["games"][165]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][165]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][165]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.801243714297925number |
| $["games"][165]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.514861338819486number |
| $["games"][165]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][166]["awayTeam"] | KCstring |
| $["games"][166]["eloProbability"] | 0.6518193357682781number |
| $["games"][166]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.008623840103944number |
| $["games"][166]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 6.841453672680355number |
| $["games"][166]["expectedHomeScore"] | 25.850077512784303number |
| $["games"][166]["expectedTotal"] | 44.85870135288825number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.968009309454953number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.