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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7701–7750 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.74755224938198number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 53.92903596111387number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 5.956234186799763number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 7.924243496254711number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.90089245194892number |
| $["games"][166]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.310219816631625number |
| $["games"][166]["gameId"] | 2026_12_KC_BUFstring |
| $["games"][166]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][166]["gameday"] | 2026-11-26string |
| $["games"][166]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -11.192159825710032number |
| $["games"][166]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 24.875067171070743number |
| $["games"][166]["homeTeam"] | BUFstring |
| $["games"][166]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7208984029688299number |
| $["games"][166]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-27T01:20:00Zstring |
| $["games"][166]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][166]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][166]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.501892540627463number |
| $["games"][166]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.21551016514903number |
| $["games"][166]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][167]["awayTeam"] | DENstring |
| $["games"][167]["eloProbability"] | 0.5217443827274088number |
| $["games"][167]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.901875830692163number |
| $["games"][167]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.5962959208188305number |
| $["games"][167]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.30557990987333number |
| $["games"][167]["expectedTotal"] | 43.20745574056549number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 3.397553222129794number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.91868094204383number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 5number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -39.88091906359136number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 5number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.023130755084791number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -1.625577532954999number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 41.30843398192269number |
| $["games"][167]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.13213134410444882number |
| $["games"][167]["gameId"] | 2026_12_DEN_PITstring |
| $["games"][167]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][167]["gameday"] | 2026-11-27string |
| $["games"][167]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.62990941920922number |
| $["games"][167]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.437317577571555number |
| $["games"][167]["homeTeam"] | PITstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.