Loading DraftADynasty…
Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7851–7900 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][170]["totalInterval80"][0] | 24.32280467815395number |
| $["games"][170]["totalInterval80"][1] | 57.03642230267551number |
| $["games"][170]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][171]["awayTeam"] | NOstring |
| $["games"][171]["eloProbability"] | 0.6168840629497608number |
| $["games"][171]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.23602922218473number |
| $["games"][171]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.305979584241451number |
| $["games"][171]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.54200880642618number |
| $["games"][171]["expectedTotal"] | 45.77803802861091number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 3.028596047246946number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.72521809615236number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 27.74933285447787number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.4683914207472575number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -1number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.496987467994199number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.50887150360823number |
| $["games"][171]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.08789638379139914number |
| $["games"][171]["gameId"] | 2026_12_NO_CINstring |
| $["games"][171]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][171]["gameday"] | 2026-11-29string |
| $["games"][171]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -14.727633914148935number |
| $["games"][171]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 21.33959308263184number |
| $["games"][171]["homeTeam"] | CINstring |
| $["games"][171]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6209476379435542number |
| $["games"][171]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-29T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][171]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][171]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][171]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.421229216350127number |
| $["games"][171]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.13484684087169number |
| $["games"][171]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][172]["awayTeam"] | NYGstring |
| $["games"][172]["eloProbability"] | 0.6514568795633959number |
| $["games"][172]["expectedAwayScore"] | 22.550011811386852number |
| $["games"][172]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 2.0445089206101628number |
| $["games"][172]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.594520731997015number |
| $["games"][172]["expectedTotal"] | 47.14453254338387number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.793187739802619number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 49.11843068913794number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 53.65166387296313number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][172]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -5.409157821489398number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
sha256 of UTF-8 JSON.stringify(data), excluding this envelope. Source receipt hashes remain inside data. CSV prefixes formula-looking text with an apostrophe; numeric signs are preserved. JSON keeps original strings.
ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.