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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 7951–8000 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][174]["eloProbability"] | 0.7218232932272266number |
| $["games"][174]["expectedAwayScore"] | 17.93391602246322number |
| $["games"][174]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 11.23370301401688number |
| $["games"][174]["expectedHomeScore"] | 29.1676190364801number |
| $["games"][174]["expectedTotal"] | 47.10153505894332number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.318216630079647number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.84673331773131number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 110.644052501362number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 15.46178988429904number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 8.143573254219394number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.48181830094684number |
| $["games"][174]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.33074415007155505number |
| $["games"][174]["gameId"] | 2026_12_TEN_JAXstring |
| $["games"][174]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][174]["gameday"] | 2026-11-29string |
| $["games"][174]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -6.799910484373507number |
| $["games"][174]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 29.26731651240727number |
| $["games"][174]["homeTeam"] | JAXstring |
| $["games"][174]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.82252958760691number |
| $["games"][174]["kickoff"] | 2026-11-29T21:05:00Zstring |
| $["games"][174]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][174]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][174]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.74472624668254number |
| $["games"][174]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.4583438712041number |
| $["games"][174]["week"] | 12number |
| $["games"][175]["awayTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][175]["eloProbability"] | 0.5099140248598669number |
| $["games"][175]["expectedAwayScore"] | 25.14326270017049number |
| $["games"][175]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -4.589201753544206number |
| $["games"][175]["expectedHomeScore"] | 20.554060946626286number |
| $["games"][175]["expectedTotal"] | 45.697323646796775number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 6.973320276367247number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.938688715521344number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 14number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -48.110126919730874number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -11.444971012984745number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -7number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -4.471650736617502number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 49.31746015911237number |
| $["games"][175]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.2428641499994797number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.