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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8151–8200 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -36.2063384473804number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -4.14181396955462number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -6.583477321553268number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.42238165004916number |
| $["games"][180]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.029976835526921652number |
| $["games"][180]["gameId"] | 2026_13_CIN_CLEstring |
| $["games"][180]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][180]["gameday"] | 2026-12-06string |
| $["games"][180]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.724747688293153number |
| $["games"][180]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.342479308487622number |
| $["games"][180]["homeTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][180]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4696103061998743number |
| $["games"][180]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-06T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][180]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][180]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][180]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.068759342331number |
| $["games"][180]["totalInterval80"][1] | 60.78237696685256number |
| $["games"][180]["week"] | 13number |
| $["games"][181]["awayTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][181]["eloProbability"] | 0.49510452523147663number |
| $["games"][181]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.10691472598583number |
| $["games"][181]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.2272192554646004number |
| $["games"][181]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.879695470521227number |
| $["games"][181]["expectedTotal"] | 45.98661019650706number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -1.1541449755591913number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.987704875508506number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -58.40183299096202number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -0.2250148295862304number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -3number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -1.37915980514542number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.013836419364225number |
| $["games"][181]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.15953094539066948number |
| $["games"][181]["gameId"] | 2026_13_DET_ATLstring |
| $["games"][181]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][181]["gameday"] | 2026-12-06string |
| $["games"][181]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.260832753854988number |
| $["games"][181]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.806394242925787number |
| $["games"][181]["homeTeam"] | ATLstring |
| $["games"][181]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.48012869400277086number |
| $["games"][181]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-06T18:00:00Zstring |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.