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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8251–8300 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -6.886033558131208number |
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 3number |
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -4.058177763369908number |
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 51.56721379179632number |
| $["games"][183]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.1594866479960571number |
| $["games"][183]["gameId"] | 2026_13_JAX_CHIstring |
| $["games"][183]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][183]["gameday"] | 2026-12-06string |
| $["games"][183]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.234526086982868number |
| $["games"][183]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.832700909797907number |
| $["games"][183]["homeTeam"] | CHIstring |
| $["games"][183]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4867847668894154number |
| $["games"][183]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-06T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][183]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][183]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][183]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.12159486763644number |
| $["games"][183]["totalInterval80"][1] | 63.835212492158number |
| $["games"][183]["week"] | 13number |
| $["games"][184]["awayTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][184]["eloProbability"] | 0.5323810898089224number |
| $["games"][184]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.11500275915669number |
| $["games"][184]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 1.530936507374633number |
| $["games"][184]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.64593926653132number |
| $["games"][184]["expectedTotal"] | 41.76094202568801number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.6171531627913396number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.73068547278981number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -32.46777779768013number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.39923160500858823number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | -1number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 3.0163847677999236number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 38.354226493800454number |
| $["games"][184]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.045187342978330214number |
| $["games"][184]["gameId"] | 2026_13_LAC_TBstring |
| $["games"][184]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][184]["gameday"] | 2026-12-06string |
| $["games"][184]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.502676991015754number |
| $["games"][184]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.56455000576502number |
| $["games"][184]["homeTeam"] | TBstring |
| $["games"][184]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5645985844511119number |
| $["games"][184]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-06T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][184]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][184]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][184]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.40413321342723number |
| $["games"][184]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.11775083794879number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.