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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8301–8350 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][184]["week"] | 13number |
| $["games"][185]["awayTeam"] | SFstring |
| $["games"][185]["eloProbability"] | 0.4194173676263058number |
| $["games"][185]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.12903845583298number |
| $["games"][185]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.10334587294643029number |
| $["games"][185]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.232384328779407number |
| $["games"][185]["expectedTotal"] | 46.36142278461239number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -2.293383021276636number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 46.61862597061196number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -111.48705198938887number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 3.7295604791106696number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 1.4361774578340345number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 46.28198688032891number |
| $["games"][185]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.13661702581138024number |
| $["games"][185]["gameId"] | 2026_13_SF_NYGstring |
| $["games"][185]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][185]["gameday"] | 2026-12-06string |
| $["games"][185]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.930267625443957number |
| $["games"][185]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.13695937133682number |
| $["games"][185]["homeTeam"] | NYGstring |
| $["games"][185]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4927025511998307number |
| $["games"][185]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-06T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][185]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][185]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][185]["totalInterval80"][0] | 30.004613972351606number |
| $["games"][185]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.71823159687317number |
| $["games"][185]["week"] | 13number |
| $["games"][186]["awayTeam"] | WASstring |
| $["games"][186]["eloProbability"] | 0.4824283902674337number |
| $["games"][186]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.275069036937783number |
| $["games"][186]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.5327057338284016number |
| $["games"][186]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.742363303109386number |
| $["games"][186]["expectedTotal"] | 45.01743234004717number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.3977356512073413number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 51.76721429660361number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -67.2150353989648number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -3.714191522697574number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][186]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -1.3164558714902377number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.