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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8551–8600 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][192]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7767027329213114number |
| $["games"][192]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-08T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][192]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][192]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][192]["totalInterval80"][0] | 31.291599564332145number |
| $["games"][192]["totalInterval80"][1] | 64.0052171888537number |
| $["games"][192]["week"] | 13number |
| $["games"][193]["awayTeam"] | MINstring |
| $["games"][193]["eloProbability"] | 0.5919987445017278number |
| $["games"][193]["expectedAwayScore"] | 19.50317242159663number |
| $["games"][193]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.532181739194457number |
| $["games"][193]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.03535416079109number |
| $["games"][193]["expectedTotal"] | 42.538526582387725number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.3751044575158318number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 35.31230252786645number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 9.663714472772654number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.7445256792953296number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 2.1196301368111676number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.84626727083574number |
| $["games"][193]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.0040980727625462565number |
| $["games"][193]["gameId"] | 2026_14_MIN_NEstring |
| $["games"][193]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][193]["gameday"] | 2026-12-10string |
| $["games"][193]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -14.501431759195931number |
| $["games"][193]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 21.565795237584844number |
| $["games"][193]["homeTeam"] | NEstring |
| $["games"][193]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6320697329631555number |
| $["games"][193]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-11T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][193]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][193]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][193]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.181717770126944number |
| $["games"][193]["totalInterval80"][1] | 58.895335394648505number |
| $["games"][193]["week"] | 14number |
| $["games"][194]["awayTeam"] | ATLstring |
| $["games"][194]["eloProbability"] | 0.5252204090894922number |
| $["games"][194]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.56718662005607number |
| $["games"][194]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 0.041515529761287695number |
| $["games"][194]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.60870214981736number |
| $["games"][194]["expectedTotal"] | 43.17588876987343number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -1.981536230273658number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 43.85202366967566number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -37.46017931330198number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.