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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8601–8650 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -1.916349912587797number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.897886142861456number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.73679047135735number |
| $["games"][194]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.1571098321073931number |
| $["games"][194]["gameId"] | 2026_14_ATL_CLEstring |
| $["games"][194]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][194]["gameday"] | 2026-12-13string |
| $["games"][194]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -17.9920979686291number |
| $["games"][194]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 18.075129028151675number |
| $["games"][194]["homeTeam"] | CLEstring |
| $["games"][194]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5064643157740238number |
| $["games"][194]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-13T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][194]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][194]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][194]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.81907995761265number |
| $["games"][194]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.53269758213421number |
| $["games"][194]["week"] | 14number |
| $["games"][195]["awayTeam"] | CHIstring |
| $["games"][195]["eloProbability"] | 0.5446701469790471number |
| $["games"][195]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.10311312966336number |
| $["games"][195]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -0.9159108211805348number |
| $["games"][195]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.187202308482828number |
| $["games"][195]["expectedTotal"] | 45.29031543814619number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.237781779516972number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 47.42201005669123number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -23.87702103446304number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -6.034563766466663number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -3.796781986949693number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.712254041476726number |
| $["games"][195]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.02298243999589311number |
| $["games"][195]["gameId"] | 2026_14_CHI_MIAstring |
| $["games"][195]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][195]["gameday"] | 2026-12-13string |
| $["games"][195]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -18.949524319570923number |
| $["games"][195]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 17.117702677209852number |
| $["games"][195]["homeTeam"] | MIAstring |
| $["games"][195]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4645769593373624number |
| $["games"][195]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-13T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][195]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][195]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.