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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 8801–8850 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][200]["gameId"] | 2026_14_TB_BALstring |
| $["games"][200]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][200]["gameday"] | 2026-12-13string |
| $["games"][200]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -12.149109815982468number |
| $["games"][200]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 23.91811718079831number |
| $["games"][200]["homeTeam"] | BALstring |
| $["games"][200]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6857124847752949number |
| $["games"][200]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-13T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][200]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][200]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][200]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.882905321829657number |
| $["games"][200]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.596522946351215number |
| $["games"][200]["week"] | 14number |
| $["games"][201]["awayTeam"] | TENstring |
| $["games"][201]["eloProbability"] | 0.7475815907393254number |
| $["games"][201]["expectedAwayScore"] | 18.880991009197864number |
| $["games"][201]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 8.417164210693688number |
| $["games"][201]["expectedHomeScore"] | 27.298155219891555number |
| $["games"][201]["expectedTotal"] | 46.17914622908942number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -3.011550048371628number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 51.15339989943932number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 133.61502912466767number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 7.038925637262722number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | 4.0273755888911005number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 43.36562063561854number |
| $["games"][201]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | 0.1435818187438212number |
| $["games"][201]["gameId"] | 2026_14_TEN_DETstring |
| $["games"][201]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][201]["gameday"] | 2026-12-13string |
| $["games"][201]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -9.6164492876967number |
| $["games"][201]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 26.450777709084075number |
| $["games"][201]["homeTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][201]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.7656981466534188number |
| $["games"][201]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-13T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][201]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][201]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][201]["totalInterval80"][0] | 29.82233741682864number |
| $["games"][201]["totalInterval80"][1] | 62.5359550413502number |
| $["games"][201]["week"] | 14number |
| $["games"][202]["awayTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][202]["eloProbability"] | 0.4237682869553891number |
| $["games"][202]["expectedAwayScore"] | 21.008141816081867number |
| $["games"][202]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -2.1064015830019156number |
| $["games"][202]["expectedHomeScore"] | 18.90174023307995number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.