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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 9051–9100 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 4number |
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 0.14525449269788893number |
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -4.75398384824717number |
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 40.09182557424771number |
| $["games"][208]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.11657109311076136number |
| $["games"][208]["gameId"] | 2026_15_SF_LACstring |
| $["games"][208]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][208]["gameday"] | 2026-12-17string |
| $["games"][208]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -16.55565029054708number |
| $["games"][208]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 19.511576706233697number |
| $["games"][208]["homeTeam"] | LACstring |
| $["games"][208]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5558826803704565number |
| $["games"][208]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-18T01:15:00Zstring |
| $["games"][208]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][208]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][208]["totalInterval80"][0] | 26.915364936721225number |
| $["games"][208]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.628982561242786number |
| $["games"][208]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][209]["awayTeam"] | SEAstring |
| $["games"][209]["eloProbability"] | 0.5392174000844151number |
| $["games"][209]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.108106374307315number |
| $["games"][209]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -1.486905052261441number |
| $["games"][209]["expectedHomeScore"] | 21.621201322045874number |
| $["games"][209]["expectedTotal"] | 44.72930769635319number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 2.1628296979961057number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 37.12819813715021number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -27.69286912817006number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 6number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -8.125202687365258number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -5.9623729893691575number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 47.82673790636072number |
| $["games"][209]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.34165574965243417number |
| $["games"][209]["gameId"] | 2026_15_SEA_PHIstring |
| $["games"][209]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][209]["gameday"] | 2026-12-19string |
| $["games"][209]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -19.52051855065183number |
| $["games"][209]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 16.546708446128946number |
| $["games"][209]["homeTeam"] | PHIstring |
| $["games"][209]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.4604113482846147number |
| $["games"][209]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-19T22:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][209]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][209]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][209]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.37249888409241number |
| $["games"][209]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.08611650861397number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.