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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 9351–9400 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][217]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.6297186775964948number |
| $["games"][217]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-20T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][217]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][217]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][217]["totalInterval80"][0] | 28.293011656149343number |
| $["games"][217]["totalInterval80"][1] | 61.00662928067091number |
| $["games"][217]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][218]["awayTeam"] | NOstring |
| $["games"][218]["eloProbability"] | 0.6291371302606455number |
| $["games"][218]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.597106917017207number |
| $["games"][218]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 2.327861093358131number |
| $["games"][218]["expectedHomeScore"] | 22.924968010375338number |
| $["games"][218]["expectedTotal"] | 43.522074927392545number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 1.8256082933378688number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.52223034224328number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 36.81278498575739number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -2.6462446803446893number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -0.8206363870068252number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 42.1912476486072number |
| $["games"][218]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.1184575814582124number |
| $["games"][218]["gameId"] | 2026_15_NO_TBstring |
| $["games"][218]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][218]["gameday"] | 2026-12-20string |
| $["games"][218]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -15.705752405032255number |
| $["games"][218]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 20.36147459174852number |
| $["games"][218]["homeTeam"] | TBstring |
| $["games"][218]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.5931224277286978number |
| $["games"][218]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-20T18:00:00Zstring |
| $["games"][218]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][218]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][218]["totalInterval80"][0] | 27.165266115131764number |
| $["games"][218]["totalInterval80"][1] | 59.878883739653325number |
| $["games"][218]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][219]["awayTeam"] | NYJstring |
| $["games"][219]["eloProbability"] | 0.5847034416022227number |
| $["games"][219]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.50600806045428number |
| $["games"][219]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.931973573799382number |
| $["games"][219]["expectedHomeScore"] | 24.437981634253664number |
| $["games"][219]["expectedTotal"] | 44.943989694707945number |
| $["games"][219]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 0.05666840717687904number |
| $["games"][219]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 59.06457726282607number |
| $["games"][219]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][219]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][219]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | 4.430927218086254number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.