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Experimental · Frozen source
11,978 data points · 1,562 fields
Signal or noise · historical research
These verdicts summarize the frozen 2024–2025 evaluation. They do not promote experimental forecasts into current recommendations. A single correct pick is not proof of a repeatable pattern.
One game
80% margin range: ±18.0 points; observed coverage 82.3%
A single upset or correct pick cannot tell us whether a forecast has a lasting edge. Judge frozen predictions over many games.
The range is calibrated from historical errors; it does not capture every roster or injury change.
Across games
Model − Elo Brier -0.0078; 95% block interval -0.0140 to -0.0018 (n=569)
Lower Brier is better. The paired interval stays below zero across the pooled held-out games.
This is a historical model comparison, not proof of an advantage on the next matchup.
Across seasons
1 of 2 seasons have a model-favoring 95% interval versus Elo
2024: -0.0139 to 0.0042 · 2025: -0.0186 to -0.0024
Only the evaluated seasons are represented. More unseen seasons and model-change controls are needed before calling this durable.
Player to next season
Candidate MAE 3.103 vs age plus production 3.098 (3009 player-seasons)
The candidate does not beat the strongest existing baseline on this point-error measure.
Inspected historical seasons and excluded rookie or thin-history cohorts limit any claim about next-season skill.
Historical market check
Model − market Brier 0.0107; 95% block interval 0.0040 to 0.0185
Positive values favor the historical market on games with matched odds.
Historical odds lack archived quote times. This is not evidence of a real-time or tradable edge.
Frozen artifact d5b0aa30726c · Snapshot Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
This-page CSV uses field path, type and value columns, including source context. Full dataset downloads are above.
11,978 matches · 9451–9500 shown. Every field remains available in the full download. Filters are saved in this page’s address.
| Field path | Value & type |
|---|---|
| $["games"][220]["totalInterval80"][0] | 32.81050575779206number |
| $["games"][220]["totalInterval80"][1] | 65.52412338231362number |
| $["games"][220]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][221]["awayTeam"] | DENstring |
| $["games"][221]["eloProbability"] | 0.3752054684779881number |
| $["games"][221]["expectedAwayScore"] | 23.64888295584115number |
| $["games"][221]["expectedHomeMargin"] | -5.7969107145367715number |
| $["games"][221]["expectedHomeScore"] | 17.851972241304377number |
| $["games"][221]["expectedTotal"] | 41.500855197145526number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | 4.3967757469207776number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 42.917903466834815number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -143.58722412694328number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | -9.778033931006611number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["restDifference"] | 0number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["scoringDifference"] | -5.381258184085834number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["scoringSum"] | 37.55275333079186number |
| $["games"][221]["featureValues"]["winRateDifference"] | -0.31277966847306066number |
| $["games"][221]["gameId"] | 2026_15_DEN_LVstring |
| $["games"][221]["gameType"] | REGstring |
| $["games"][221]["gameday"] | 2026-12-20string |
| $["games"][221]["homeMarginInterval80"][0] | -23.83052421292716number |
| $["games"][221]["homeMarginInterval80"][1] | 12.236702783853616number |
| $["games"][221]["homeTeam"] | LVstring |
| $["games"][221]["homeWinProbability"] | 0.3144711373195029number |
| $["games"][221]["kickoff"] | 2026-12-20T21:25:00Zstring |
| $["games"][221]["market"] | Unavailable (null)null |
| $["games"][221]["neutral"] | falseboolean |
| $["games"][221]["totalInterval80"][0] | 25.144046384884746number |
| $["games"][221]["totalInterval80"][1] | 57.85766400940631number |
| $["games"][221]["week"] | 15number |
| $["games"][222]["awayTeam"] | DETstring |
| $["games"][222]["eloProbability"] | 0.5638256410383227number |
| $["games"][222]["expectedAwayScore"] | 20.20756635554408number |
| $["games"][222]["expectedHomeMargin"] | 3.5932107739453203number |
| $["games"][222]["expectedHomeScore"] | 23.800777129489404number |
| $["games"][222]["expectedTotal"] | 44.008343485033485number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["allowedDifference"] | -7.102325890358539number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["allowedSum"] | 41.03952396070916number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["awayGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["awayRest"] | 7number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["eloDifference"] | -10.406123646899232number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["homeField"] | 1number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["homeGames"] | 0number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["homeRest"] | 10number |
| $["games"][222]["featureValues"]["marginDifference"] | 3.769146345116006number |
Source date: Sep 5, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC
272 scheduled games, 32 team outlooks, probability calibration, score errors and player-production experiments. Frozen preseason research; does not change public rankings.
Original capture date; opening or downloading does not refresh the source. Per-record timestamps take precedence. Definitions may describe unavailable inputs.
JSON bracket paths; [] means every array element. CSV uses concrete zero-based indices. Types are observed, not a promise that future fields cannot change. null is unavailable; empty array/object means an empty collection. Zero is preserved as a measured or supplied numeric value. Source-native units and scoring. Consult metric-definitions for formulas; ambiguous units remain unspecified, never inferred.
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ecbde32e2751aef21c0bf12e3dfcd6ef10021f583afb03d6db2f3bce002f9316
Published observations, approved source-labeled aggregates, research and definitions are provided within each dataset's stated scope. Read each record's source, period, scoring and availability. Research visibility does not promote a model into public rankings. Missing means unavailable, never zero. No account records or provider write access.